Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Nassr prediction · Pro League

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Close to call, with Al-Nassr just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Ahli Jeddah 38%, draw 25%, Al-Nassr 38%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-NassrBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 07:15 · postponed, not graded

Al-Ahli Jeddah win38%

Draw25%

Al-Nassr win38%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueAlinma Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al-Nassr

3Days since last match3

Last match: 12 Oct · AFC Champions League Elite

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-nassr winFirst published 9 Oct 07:15 · postponed, not graded

38% The market45%

Us38%

~~Market~~45%

We make Al-Nassr a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al-Nassr~~1.59 – 1.59

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug~~W3 D0 L3 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 19~~6 v 3

~~The market · Al-Nassr win~~45% · ours 38%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Nassr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 45% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Ahli Jeddah win	38%	30%	+8
Draw	25%	25%	0
Al-Nassr win	38%	45%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	61%	60%	+1
Both teams to score	64%	62%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	83%	80%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	38%	+1
Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw	62%	55%	+7
Al-Ahli Jeddah clean sheet	21%	–	–
Al-Nassr clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 4.9 6.0 5.3 2.8 1 6.0 11.1 8.2 4.4 2 5.3 8.2 6.5 3.5 3 2.8 4.4 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Ahli Jeddah down, Al-Nassr across0–5 goals a side shown (98.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,469 Pro League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.9% of games this season, across 71 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 9 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.44 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 3.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Nassr away: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 1.59 for Al-Nassr. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.44

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~7 of 9

~~Last meetings~~ALN 2–0 ALA · ALA 3–2 ALN · ALN 2–2 ALA · ALA 2–3 ALN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug

AL-AHLI JEDDAH

LLWLWW1–3 · 0–3 · 5–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 4–0

AL-NASSR

WWLWDW3–2 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	8	+19	21
2	Al-Qadisiyah FC	8	+13	19
3	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
4	Al-Ittihad FC	8	+5	17
5	NEOM	8	+7	16
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15
7	Al-Ettifaq	8	0	12
8	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
9	Al Diriyah	8	−1	11
10	Al-Hazm	8	−2	9
11	Al Khaleej Saihat	9	−5	9
12	Al Riyadh	8	−8	9
13	Al Shabab	8	−2	7
14	Al-Fayha	9	−6	7
15	Al-Faisaly FC	8	−7	6
16	Al-Fateh	8	−11	3
17	Al Taawon	8	−12	3
18	Abha	7	−8	2