Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej Saihat prediction · Pro League

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 21:33

Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–1 Al Khaleej Saihat AL-AHLI JEDDAH WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Ahli Jeddah win~~70%

~~The market said~~68%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.141

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.154

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Ahli Jeddah win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Ahli Jeddah was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 69% now. 0–0 · 69–18–12
1′KICK-OFF Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej Saihat
10′🟨 YELLOW · 10' Ahmad Asiri · Al Khaleej Saihat
16′11′: Ivan Toney on the scoresheet for Al-Ahli Jeddah, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 87–9–4
16′We published Al-Ahli Jeddah at 70%. Our model now makes it 87%. 1–0 · 87–9–4
16′⚽ GOAL · 11' Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–0 Al Khaleej Saihat · Ivan Toney (assist Eduard Spertsyan)
16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 70% at kick-off, 87% now
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' Mohammed Al-Khabrani · Al Khaleej Saihat
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–0 · 86–10–3
45′HALF-TIME Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–0 Al Khaleej Saihat
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Saleh Al Amri · Off: Ahmad Asiri
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Thamer Al-Khaibri · Off: Joshua King
46′SECOND HALF Al-Ahli Jeddah 1–0 Al Khaleej Saihat
49′🟨 YELLOW · 45+3' Joshua King · Al Khaleej Saihat
57′We published Al-Ahli Jeddah at 70%. Our model now makes it 98%. 2–0 · 98–2–0
57′Al-Ahli Jeddah ahead on 57′ through Artem Bondarenko. 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Al-Ahli Jeddah 2–0 Al Khaleej Saihat
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 70% at kick-off, 98% now
61′We published Al-Ahli Jeddah at 70%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–0 Al Khaleej Saihat
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Al-Ahli Jeddah win: 70% at kick-off, over 99% now
62′Francisco Trincão scores for Al-Ahli Jeddah on 61′ — 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al-Ahli Jeddah · On: Matheus Gonçalves Martins · Off: Firas Al-Buraikan
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al-Ahli Jeddah · On: Mohammed Abdulrahman Yousef · Off: Saeed Baattia
68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al-Ahli Jeddah · On: Ziyad Al-Johani · Off: Eduard Spertsyan
68′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Miguel Crespo da Silva · Off: Mohammed Al-Khabrani
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Mateo Benegas · Al Khaleej Saihat
70′A red card for Al Khaleej Saihat on 70′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 3–0 · 100–0–0
70′🟥 RED CARD · 70' Mateo Benegas · Al Khaleej Saihat
78′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 4–0 · 100–0–0
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–0 Al Khaleej Saihat
79′78′: Ivan Toney on the scoresheet for Al-Ahli Jeddah, making it 4–0. 4–0 · 100–0–0
80′GOAL DISALLOWED · 79' Mohammed Abdulrahman Yousef · Al-Ahli Jeddah
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: Hussain Al Issa · Off: Musa Barrow
81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Khaleej Saihat · On: mohammed bader munshi · Off: Majed Omar Kanabah
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Ahli Jeddah · On: Ramez Zaid Al-Attar · Off: Francisco Trincão
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Ahli Jeddah · On: Abdullah Radif · Off: Artem Bondarenko
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Al-Ahli Jeddah 3–1 Al Khaleej Saihat
88′87′: Thamer Al-Khaibri on the scoresheet for Al Khaleej Saihat, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 100–0–0
97′Al-Ahli Jeddah ahead on 90′ through Ivan Toney. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
97′That is 5, and we only asked for 3.2 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
97′⚽ GOAL · 90+6' Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–1 Al Khaleej Saihat · Ivan Toney (penalty)
FTFULL TIME Al-Ahli Jeddah 4–1 Al Khaleej Saihat
FTAl-Ahli Jeddah 4–1 Al Khaleej Saihat · Al-Ahli Jeddah win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Ahli Jeddah are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Ahli Jeddah 70%, draw 18%, Al Khaleej Saihat 12%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej SaihatBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

Al-Ahli Jeddah win70%

Draw18%

Al Khaleej Saihat win12%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 11

VenuePrince Abdullah Al-Faisal Sports City Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Ahli Jeddah

4-3-3

Al Khaleej Saihat

4-3-1-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Ahli Jeddah

Al Khaleej Saihat

4Days since last match5

Last match: 19 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 18 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

3Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	9	+11	18
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	10	−4	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Ahli Jeddah

4-3-3

1 Abdulrahman Al Sanbi

15 Saeed Baattia

5 Mohammed Bakor

3 Ibañez

31 Saad Yaslam

6 V. Atangana Edoa

19 A. Bondarenko

8 E. Spertsyan

7 Trincão

17 I. Toney

9 Feras Al Brikan

Coach · M. Pusic

Substitutes

62 · Abdullah Abdo

87 · Ramez Al Attar

30 · Ziyad Al Johani

11 · Meshal Al Mutairi

4 · Makaya Ibrahima Diaby

20 · Matheus Gonçalves

46 · Rayane Hamidou

21 · Abdullah Radif

29 · Mohammed Yousef

Al Khaleej Saihat

4-3-1-2

96 Marwan Al Haidari

27 Fawaz Al Saqour

13 Ahmad Asiri

17 Abdullah Al Hafith

3 Mohammed Al Khabrani

8 Omar Mascarell

12 Majed Kanabah

5 Pedro Rebocho

99 M. Barrow

9 M. Benegas

7 J. King

Coach · José Gomes

Substitutes

4 · K. Kouyaté

1 · M. Abbas Ibrahim

15 · Mansour Hamzi

19 · Miguel Crespo

14 · Ali Al Shaafi

90 · Thamer Al Khaibri

11 · Saleh Al Amri

28 · Hussain Al Eisa

16 · Bader Munshi

Our number · al-ahli jeddah winFirst published 16 Oct 00:00 · locked at kick-off

70% The market68%

Us70%

~~Market~~68%

We make Al-Ahli Jeddah a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 68%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.4–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Ahli Jeddah v Al Khaleej Saihat~~2.37 – 0.88

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 1 Sept~~W4 D0 L2 · W2 D3 L1

~~Table places · points 18 v 12~~5 v 10

~~The market · Al-Ahli Jeddah win~~68% · ours 70%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Ahli Jeddah win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 68% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Ahli Jeddah win	70%	68%	+2
Draw	18%	19%	−1
Al Khaleej Saihat win	12%	13%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	63%	62%	+1
Both teams to score	53%	54%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	84%	82%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	41%	42%	−1
Al-Ahli Jeddah or draw	88%	87%	+1
Al-Ahli Jeddah clean sheet	42%	–	–
Al Khaleej Saihat clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.8%

0123450 4.5 3.1 1 8.9 8.5 3.6 2 10.8 9.4 4.2 3 8.5 7.3 3.2 4 5.1 4.4 5 2.5 2.1

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Ahli Jeddah down, Al Khaleej Saihat across0–5 goals a side shown (96.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,485 Pro League matches up to 22 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.2% of games this season, across 87 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.67 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 3.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Khaleej Saihat away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.37 goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah, 0.88 for Al Khaleej Saihat. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.67

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALK 1–4 ALA · ALA 4–1 ALK · ALA 2–2 ALK · ALK 0–3 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 1 Sept

AL-AHLI JEDDAH

LWLWWW0–3 · 5–0 · 2–3 · 3–1 · 4–0 · 3–2

AL KHALEEJ SAIHAT

LDDDWW0–3 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Qadisiyah FC	10	+15	25
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	9	+20	24
4	Al-Ittihad FC	9	+8	20
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	9	+11	18
6	NEOM	10	+5	16
7	Al Diriyah	10	0	15
8	Al-Ettifaq	10	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	10	−4	12
11	Al Shabab	10	0	11
12	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
13	Al Riyadh	9	−9	9
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	10	−13	4
18	Abha	8	−9	2