Abha v Al Kholood prediction · Pro League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Al Kholood are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Abha 35%, draw 25%, Al Kholood 40%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Abha v Al KholoodBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · postponed, not graded

Abha win35%

Draw25%

Al Kholood win40%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:20

RoundMatchday 10

VenuePrince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Abha

Al Kholood

3Days since last match4

Last match: 16 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 15 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
18	Abha	8	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al kholood winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 17 Oct 00:15 · postponed, not graded

40% The market39%

Us40%

~~Market~~39%

We make Al Kholood a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 39%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Abha v Al Kholood~~1.44 – 1.56

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 2 v 12~~18 v 9

~~The market · Al Kholood win~~39% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Kholood win The market, margin stripped

Published at 41%, 40% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 39% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Abha win	35%	33%	+2
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Al Kholood win	40%	39%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	57%	51%	+6
Both teams to score	60%	56%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	74%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	35%	31%	+4
Abha or draw	60%	61%	−1
Abha clean sheet	22%	–	–
Al Kholood clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.9 7.2 6.1 3.2 1 6.6 11.7 8.5 4.4 2 5.2 7.9 6.1 3.2 3 2.5 3.8 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Abha down, Al Kholood across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,476 Pro League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 55.1% of games this season, across 78 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2017/18 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Abha at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Kholood away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Abha, 1.56 for Al Kholood. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2017/18

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ABH 0–0 ALK · ALK 2–0 ABH

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 25 Aug

ABHA

DLLLDL1–1 · 2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–2

AL KHOLOOD

WDWLLL3–1 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–5 · 2–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Qadisiyah FC	9	+14	22
2	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	8	+19	21
3	Al-Nassr	8	+12	19
4	Al-Ittihad FC	8	+5	17
5	NEOM	9	+6	16
6	Al-Ahli Jeddah	8	+10	15
7	Al-Ettifaq	9	+1	15
8	Al Diriyah	9	−1	12
9	Al Kholood	9	−4	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	10	−4	12
11	Al-Hazm	9	−3	9
12	Al Riyadh	8	−8	9
13	Al Shabab	8	−2	7
14	Al-Fayha	9	−6	7
15	Al-Faisaly FC	8	−7	6
16	Al-Fateh	10	−11	6
17	Al Taawon	9	−12	4
18	Abha	8	−9	2