Abha v Al-Ittihad FC prediction · Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AbhaDrawAl-Ittihad FC

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Ittihad FC 64%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Ittihad FC are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Abha 16%, draw 20%, Al-Ittihad FC 64%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Abha v Al-Ittihad FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Abha win16%

Draw20%

Al-Ittihad FC win64%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 13:45

RoundMatchday 12

VenuePrince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Abha

Al-Ittihad FC

6Days since last match7

Last match: 24 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
18	Abha	9	−11	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-ittihad fc winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · updated 25 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off

64% The market–

Us64%

We make Al-Ittihad FC a 64% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.2, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Abha v Al-Ittihad FC~~1.01 – 2.25

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 23~~18 v 4

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Ittihad FC win

Published at 63%, 64% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Abha win	16%	–	–
Draw	20%	–	–
Al-Ittihad FC win	64%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Abha or draw	36%	–	–
Abha clean sheet	11%	–	–
Al-Ittihad FC clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.5%

0123450 4.5 8.3 9.5 7.1 4.1 1 3.6 9.2 9.5 7.0 4.0 2 2.1 4.5 4.8 3.5 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Abha down, Al-Ittihad FC across0–5 goals a side shown (96.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,492 Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 4.67 goals a meeting; 6 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Abha at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Ittihad FC away: 2.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Abha, 2.25 for Al-Ittihad FC. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~4.67

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ABH 3–1 ALI · ALI 4–2 ABH · ALI 4–0 ABH · ABH 1–2 ALI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

ABHA

LLLDLL2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

AL-ITTIHAD FC

WWWLWW2–1 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–3 · 4–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	+21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
6	NEOM	11	+7	19
7	Al-Ettifaq	11	+1	18
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	10	−7	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
11	Al Riyadh	10	−8	12
12	Al Shabab	10	0	11
13	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	11	−14	4
18	Abha	9	−11	2