Abha v Al-Faisaly FC prediction · Pro League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Faisaly FC are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Abha 32%, draw 27%, Al-Faisaly FC 42%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Abha v Al-Faisaly FCBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 9 Oct 06:15 · locked at kick-off

Abha win32%

Draw27%

Al-Faisaly FC win42%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 12:40

RoundMatchday 8

VenuePrince Sultan bin Abdulaziz Sports City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Abha

Al-Faisaly FC

3Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

Last match: 23 Oct · the Saudi Pro League

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
18	Abha	9	−11	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-faisaly fc winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 25 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Al-Faisaly FC a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Abha v Al-Faisaly FC~~1.24 – 1.47

~~Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 2 v 7~~18 v 15

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Faisaly FC win The market, margin stripped

Published at 40%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Abha win	32%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Al-Faisaly FC win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Abha or draw	58%	–	–
Abha clean sheet	24%	–	–
Al-Faisaly FC clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 7.6 9.3 7.2 3.6 1 7.8 12.4 8.6 4.3 2 5.2 7.3 5.3 2.6 3 2.2 3.1 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Abha down, Al-Faisaly FC across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,492 Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 56.4% of games this season, across 94 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Abha at home: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Faisaly FC away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Abha, 1.47 for Al-Faisaly FC. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~ALF 0–2 ABH · ABH 2–2 ALF · ALF 2–2 ABH · ABH 3–1 ALF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Pro League this season · since 28 Aug

ABHA

LLLDLL2–3 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 0–2

AL-FAISALY FC

DDLWDL0–0 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 3–2 · 2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Hilal Saudi FC	10	+21	27
2	Al-Nassr	10	+15	25
3	Al-Qadisiyah FC	11	+14	25
4	Al-Ittihad FC	10	+10	23
5	Al-Ahli Jeddah	10	+14	21
6	NEOM	11	+7	19
7	Al-Ettifaq	11	+1	18
8	Al Diriyah	11	−2	15
9	Al Kholood	10	−7	12
10	Al Khaleej Saihat	11	−7	12
11	Al Riyadh	10	−8	12
12	Al Shabab	10	0	11
13	Al-Hazm	11	−4	10
14	Al-Fayha	11	−7	8
15	Al-Faisaly FC	10	−9	7
16	Al-Fateh	11	−13	6
17	Al Taawon	11	−14	4
18	Abha	9	−11	2