Mudhar Club v Al Nairyah prediction · Division 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:17

Mudhar Club 2–2 Al Nairyah MUDHAR CLUB WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Mudhar Club win~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.755

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Mudhar Club are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Mudhar Club 40%, draw 29%, Al Nairyah 30%. Over 2.5 goals 44%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Mudhar Club v Al NairyahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Mudhar Club win40%

Draw29%

Al Nairyah win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Mudhar Club

Al Nairyah

198Days since last match15

Last match: 9 Apr · Division 2

Last match: 9 Oct · Division 2

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
26	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · mudhar club winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Mudhar Club a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Mudhar Club v Al Nairyah~~1.33 – 1.12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Mudhar Club win	40%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Al Nairyah win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	44%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	23%	–	–
Mudhar Club or draw	70%	–	–
Mudhar Club clean sheet	33%	–	–
Al Nairyah clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.8%

0123450 9.9 8.6 5.4 2.1 1 10.4 13.8 7.1 2.7 2 7.6 8.4 4.7 3 3.4 3.8 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Mudhar Club down, Al Nairyah across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,148 Division 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Mudhar Club at home: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Nairyah away: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.33 goals for Mudhar Club, 1.12 for Al Nairyah. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MUD 1–1 ALN · ALN 0–0 MUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct

MUDHAR CLUB

No matches in our record yet.

AL NAIRYAH

L0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
2	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
3	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
4	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
5	Al Sahel	3	0	4
6	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
7	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
8	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
9	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
10	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
11	Baish	1	+1	3
12	Al Safa	1	+1	3
13	Najran	1	+1	3
14	Arar	2	0	3
15	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
16	Al Qous	2	0	2
17	Al Jubail	2	0	2
18	Al Baten	2	0	2
19	Al Hada	1	0	1
20	Afif	2	−1	1
21	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
22	Al Loa	2	−2	1
23	Jubbah	2	−2	1
24	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
25	Jerash	1	−1	0
26	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
27	Qilwah	1	−1	0
28	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
29	Al-Washm	2	−7	0