Jerash v Najran prediction · Division 2

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 17:01

Jerash 1–2 Najran JERASH WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Jerash win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.718

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.714

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 4 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Jerash win at 43%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Jerash 43% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–26–32
1′KICK-OFF Jerash v Najran
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Jerash win 36%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+7' Jerash win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
FTFULL TIME Jerash 1–2 Najran
FTJerash 1–2 Najran · Jerash win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Jerash are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jerash 43%, draw 26%, Najran 32%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 62%.

The AI’s read on Jerash v NajranBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Jerash win43%

Draw26%

Najran win32%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 13:40

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jerash

Najran

192Days since last match192

Last match: 10 Apr · Division 2

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · jerash winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Jerash a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.7–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jerash v Najran~~1.67 – 1.41

~~The market · Jerash win~~42% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Jerash win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jerash win	43%	42%	+1
Draw	26%	26%	0
Najran win	32%	32%	0
Over 2.5 goals	59%	52%	+7
Both teams to score	62%	57%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	37%	38%	−1
Jerash or draw	68%	68%	0
Jerash clean sheet	25%	–	–
Najran clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 2 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.7%

0123450 5.8 5.6 4.6 2.2 1 6.8 11.7 7.5 3.5 2 6.4 8.9 6.2 2.9 3 3.6 5.0 3.5 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jerash down, Najran across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,143 Division 2 matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jerash at home: 2.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Najran away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Jerash, 1.41 for Najran. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JER 0–1 NAJ · NAJ 0–0 JER

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season

JERASH

No matches in our record yet.

NAJRAN

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
2	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
3	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
4	Al-Wajj	2	+1	4
5	Al Rayan	1	+2	3
6	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
7	Arar	1	+2	3
8	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
9	Baish	1	+1	3
10	Al Safa	1	+1	3
11	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
12	Al Taraji	2	−1	3
13	Al Qous	2	0	2
14	Al Jubail	2	0	2
15	Al Baten	2	0	2
16	Al Hada	1	0	1
17	Afif	2	−1	1
18	Al Qwarah	2	−1	1
19	Al Sahel	2	−1	1
20	Al Loa	2	−2	1
21	Jubbah	2	−2	1
22	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
23	Qilwah	1	−1	0
24	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
25	Al Gottah	1	−2	0
26	Al-Washm	2	−7	0