Arar v Al-Wajj prediction · Division 2

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 16:32

Arar 0–2 Al-Wajj AL-WAJJ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Wajj win~~41%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.533

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Wajj are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arar 33%, draw 26%, Al-Wajj 41%. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Arar v Al-WajjBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Arar win33%

Draw26%

Al-Wajj win41%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 13:35

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arar

Al-Wajj

7Days since last match7

Last match: 16 Oct · Division 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al-Wajj	2	+1	4
7	Arar	1	+2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-wajj winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Al-Wajj a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.6, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arar v Al-Wajj~~1.41 – 1.58

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct~~W1 D0 L0 · W1 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 3 v 4~~7 v 4

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arar win	33%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Al-Wajj win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	57%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	35%	–	–
Arar or draw	59%	–	–
Arar clean sheet	21%	–	–
Al-Wajj clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.1%

0123450 6.2 7.0 6.3 3.3 1 6.1 12.1 8.7 4.6 2 5.0 7.8 6.1 3.2 3 2.4 3.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arar down, Al-Wajj across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,144 Division 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 5 previous meetings since 2018/19 in every competition we cover, 2.20 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arar at home: 2.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Wajj away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.41 goals for Arar, 1.58 for Al-Wajj. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2018/19

~~Goals a meeting~~2.20

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~3 of 5

~~Last meetings~~ALW 1–1 ARA · ARA 0–3 ALW · ALW 0–0 ARA · ARA 1–3 ALW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct

ARAR

W3–1

AL-WAJJ

WD1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
2	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
3	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
4	Al-Wajj	2	+1	4
5	Al Rayan	1	+2	3
6	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
7	Arar	1	+2	3
8	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
9	Baish	1	+1	3
10	Al Safa	1	+1	3
11	Najran	1	+1	3
12	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
13	Al Taraji	2	−1	3
14	Al Qous	2	0	2
15	Al Jubail	2	0	2
16	Al Baten	2	0	2
17	Al Hada	1	0	1
18	Afif	2	−1	1
19	Al Qwarah	2	−1	1
20	Al Sahel	2	−1	1
21	Al Loa	2	−2	1
22	Jubbah	2	−2	1
23	Jerash	1	−1	0
24	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
25	Qilwah	1	−1	0
26	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
27	Al Gottah	1	−2	0
28	Al-Washm	2	−7	0