Arar v Al Rayan prediction · Division 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ArarDrawAl Rayan

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Rayan 46%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Rayan are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arar 29%, draw 25%, Al Rayan 46%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Arar v Al RayanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Arar win29%

Draw25%

Al Rayan win46%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arar

Al Rayan

5Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · Division 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
17	Arar	2	0	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al rayan winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

46% The market–

Us46%

We make Al Rayan a 46% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.8, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arar v Al Rayan~~1.38 – 1.79

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct~~W1 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~17 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Rayan win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arar win	29%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Al Rayan win	46%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	61%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	39%	–	–
Arar or draw	54%	–	–
Arar clean sheet	17%	–	–
Al Rayan clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.4 6.6 6.7 4.0 1 4.9 11.3 9.1 5.5 2.5 2 4.0 7.1 6.3 3.7 3 3.3 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arar down, Al Rayan across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Division 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arar at home: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Rayan away: 2.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Arar, 1.79 for Al Rayan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ARA 2–2 ALR · ALR 1–2 ARA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct

ARAR

WL3–1 · 0–2

AL RAYAN

WL3–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Sharq	3	+7	7
2	Al Entesar	3	+3	7
3	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
4	Baish	2	+2	6
5	Al-Kawkab	3	0	6
6	Al Hada	2	+3	4
7	Al Rawdhah	2	+2	4
8	Al Sahel	3	0	4
9	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
10	Al Arabi SC	3	−1	4
11	Al-Ain	1	+3	3
12	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
13	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
14	Najran	1	+1	3
15	Al Qous	3	0	3
16	Al Shoalah	2	0	3
17	Arar	2	0	3
18	Al Najoom	3	−1	3
19	Al Safa	2	−2	3
20	Al Baten	2	0	2
21	Al Jubail	3	−1	2
22	Jubbah	3	−2	2
23	Mudhar Club	1	0	1
24	Al Nairyah	2	−1	1
25	Qilwah	2	−1	1
26	Afif	3	−2	1
27	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
28	Al Loa	2	−2	1
29	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
30	Jerash	1	−1	0
31	Al-Washm	2	−7	0