Al-Wajj v Mudhar Club prediction · Division 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al-WajjDrawMudhar Club

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:40

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Wajj 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Wajj are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Wajj 38%, draw 30%, Mudhar Club 32%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Al-Wajj v Mudhar ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Wajj win38%

Draw30%

Mudhar Club win32%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:40

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Wajj

Mudhar Club

5Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · Division 2

Last match: 24 Oct · Division 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
23	Mudhar Club	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-wajj winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Al-Wajj a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Wajj v Mudhar Club~~1.26 – 1.15

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct~~W2 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 7 v 1~~3 v 23

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Wajj win

Published at 37%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Wajj win	38%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Mudhar Club win	32%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	43%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	70%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	22%	–	–
Al-Wajj or draw	68%	–	–
Al-Wajj clean sheet	32%	–	–
Mudhar Club clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 10.4 9.1 5.9 2.3 1 10.1 14.1 7.4 2.8 2 7.1 8.1 4.6 3 3.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Wajj down, Mudhar Club across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Division 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Wajj at home: 0.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Mudhar Club away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Al-Wajj, 1.15 for Mudhar Club. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~MUD 2–2 ALW · ALW 2–0 MUD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct

AL-WAJJ

WDW1–0 · 2–2 · 2–0

MUDHAR CLUB

D2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Sharq	3	+7	7
2	Al Entesar	3	+3	7
3	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
4	Baish	2	+2	6
5	Al-Kawkab	3	0	6
6	Al Hada	2	+3	4
7	Al Rawdhah	2	+2	4
8	Al Sahel	3	0	4
9	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
10	Al Arabi SC	3	−1	4
11	Al-Ain	1	+3	3
12	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
13	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
14	Najran	1	+1	3
15	Al Qous	3	0	3
16	Al Shoalah	2	0	3
17	Arar	2	0	3
18	Al Najoom	3	−1	3
19	Al Safa	2	−2	3
20	Al Baten	2	0	2
21	Al Jubail	3	−1	2
22	Jubbah	3	−2	2
23	Mudhar Club	1	0	1
24	Al Nairyah	2	−1	1
25	Qilwah	2	−1	1
26	Afif	3	−2	1
27	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
28	Al Loa	2	−2	1
29	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
30	Jerash	1	−1	0
31	Al-Washm	2	−7	0