Al Shoalah v Al-Washm prediction · Division 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al ShoalahDrawAl-Washm

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:10

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Shoalah 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Shoalah are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Shoalah 40%, draw 26%, Al-Washm 34%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Al Shoalah v Al-WashmBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Shoalah win40%

Draw26%

Al-Washm win34%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 12:10

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Shoalah

Al-Washm

5Days since last match12

Last match: 24 Oct · Division 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Division 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
29	Al-Washm	2	−7	0

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al shoalah winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Al Shoalah a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Shoalah v Al-Washm~~1.59 – 1.44

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 10 Oct~~W1 D0 L1 · W0 D0 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 0~~8 v 29

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shoalah win	40%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Al-Washm win	34%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	58%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	81%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	36%	–	–
Al Shoalah or draw	66%	–	–
Al Shoalah clean sheet	24%	–	–
Al-Washm clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.9%

0123450 5.9 6.1 5.0 2.4 1 6.8 11.9 7.9 3.8 2 6.1 8.6 6.2 3.0 3 3.2 4.6 3.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shoalah down, Al-Washm across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,148 Division 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 5.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Shoalah at home: 2.83 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Washm away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.59 goals for Al Shoalah, 1.44 for Al-Washm. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~5.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALW 3–3 ALS · ALS 3–1 ALW

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 10 Oct

AL SHOALAH

WL3–1 · 0–2

AL-WASHM

LL0–5 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
2	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
3	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
4	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
5	Al Sahel	3	0	4
6	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
7	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
8	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
9	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
10	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
11	Baish	1	+1	3
12	Al Safa	1	+1	3
13	Najran	1	+1	3
14	Arar	2	0	3
15	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
16	Al Qous	2	0	2
17	Al Jubail	2	0	2
18	Al Baten	2	0	2
19	Al Hada	1	0	1
20	Afif	2	−1	1
21	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
22	Al Loa	2	−2	1
23	Jubbah	2	−2	1
24	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
25	Jerash	1	−1	0
26	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
27	Qilwah	1	−1	0
28	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
29	Al-Washm	2	−7	0