Al Shoalah v Al Loa prediction · Division 2

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Al Shoalah 3–1 Al Loa AL LOA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Loa win~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.801

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Loa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Shoalah 28%, draw 24%, Al Loa 48%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Al Shoalah v Al LoaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Al Shoalah win28%

Draw24%

Al Loa win48%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:20

RoundMatchday 2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Shoalah

Al Loa

190Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Apr · Division 2

Last match: 10 Oct · Division 2

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
14	Al Loa	1	0	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al loa winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Al Loa a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Shoalah v Al Loa~~1.44 – 1.92

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Shoalah win	28%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Al Loa win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	65%	–	–
Both teams to score	65%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Al Shoalah or draw	52%	–	–
Al Shoalah clean sheet	15%	–	–
Al Loa clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.5 6.0 6.4 4.1 2.0 1 4.3 10.4 9.1 5.8 2.8 2 3.6 6.8 6.5 4.1 2.0 3 3.3 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Shoalah down, Al Loa across0–5 goals a side shown (98.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,137 Division 2 matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Al Shoalah at home: 2.33 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al Loa away: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.44 goals for Al Shoalah, 1.92 for Al Loa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 10 Oct

AL SHOALAH

No matches in our record yet.

AL LOA

D2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wajj	2	+1	4
2	Al Sharq	1	+5	3
3	Al Entesar	1	+2	3
4	Al Rayan	1	+2	3
5	Arar	1	+2	3
6	Baish	1	+1	3
7	Al Safa	1	+1	3
8	Al-Kawkab	1	+1	3
9	Al Arabi SC	1	+1	3
10	Al Taraji	2	−1	3
11	Al Baten	2	0	2
12	Al Hada	1	0	1
13	Al Jubail	1	0	1
14	Al Loa	1	0	1
15	Al Qous	1	0	1
16	Afif	2	−1	1
17	Al Qwarah	2	−1	1
18	Al Sahel	2	−1	1
19	Al Najoom	1	−1	0
20	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
21	Qilwah	1	−1	0
22	Al Gottah	1	−2	0
23	Jubbah	1	−2	0
24	Al-Washm	1	−5	0