Al Sharq v Al Shoalah prediction · Division 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:45

Al Sharq 2–0 Al Shoalah AL SHARQ WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Sharq win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.486

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Sharq are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Sharq 43%, draw 27%, Al Shoalah 30%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 57%.

The AI’s read on Al Sharq v Al ShoalahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Al Sharq win43%

Draw27%

Al Shoalah win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:15

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Sharq

Al Shoalah

7Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · Division 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
8	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al sharq winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Al Sharq a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Sharq v Al Shoalah~~1.54 – 1.25

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 10 Oct~~W1 D1 L0 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 4 v 3~~4 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Sharq win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Al Shoalah win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	57%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	77%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
Al Sharq or draw	70%	–	–
Al Sharq clean sheet	29%	–	–
Al Shoalah clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.7%

0123450 7.3 6.7 4.8 2.0 1 8.5 12.7 7.3 3.1 2 7.3 8.9 5.6 2.3 3 3.8 4.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Sharq down, Al Shoalah across0–5 goals a side shown (99.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,148 Division 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Sharq at home: 1.50 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Shoalah away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.54 goals for Al Sharq, 1.25 for Al Shoalah. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~SHA 2–2 SHO · SHO 2–1 SHA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 10 Oct

AL SHARQ

WD5–0 · 1–1

AL SHOALAH

W3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
2	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
3	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
4	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
5	Al Sahel	3	0	4
6	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
7	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
8	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
9	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
10	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
11	Baish	1	+1	3
12	Al Safa	1	+1	3
13	Najran	1	+1	3
14	Arar	2	0	3
15	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
16	Al Qous	2	0	2
17	Al Jubail	2	0	2
18	Al Baten	2	0	2
19	Al Hada	1	0	1
20	Afif	2	−1	1
21	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
22	Al Loa	2	−2	1
23	Jubbah	2	−2	1
24	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
25	Jerash	1	−1	0
26	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
27	Qilwah	1	−1	0
28	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
29	Al-Washm	2	−7	0