Al Sahel v Al Rayan prediction · Division 2

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 18:31

Al Sahel 1–0 Al Rayan AL SAHEL WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Sahel win~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.482

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Sahel are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Sahel 43%, draw 27%, Al Rayan 30%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Al Sahel v Al RayanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Sahel win43%

Draw27%

Al Rayan win30%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 15:40

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Sahel

Al Rayan

7Days since last match14

Last match: 16 Oct · Division 2

Last match: 9 Oct · Division 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Rayan	1	+2	3
20	Al Sahel	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al sahel winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Al Sahel a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.3, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Sahel v Al Rayan~~1.58 – 1.27

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D1 L1 · W1 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~20 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Sahel win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Al Rayan win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Al Sahel or draw	70%	–	–
Al Sahel clean sheet	28%	–	–
Al Rayan clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.0 6.4 4.7 2.0 1 8.1 12.5 7.3 3.1 2 7.2 9.0 5.7 2.4 3 3.8 4.7 3.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Sahel down, Al Rayan across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,144 Division 2 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Al Sahel at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al Rayan away: 2.33 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.58 goals for Al Sahel, 1.27 for Al Rayan. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct

AL SAHEL

LD0–1 · 2–2

AL RAYAN

W3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
2	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
3	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
4	Al-Wajj	2	+1	4
5	Al Rayan	1	+2	3
6	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
7	Arar	1	+2	3
8	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
9	Baish	1	+1	3
10	Al Safa	1	+1	3
11	Najran	1	+1	3
12	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
13	Al Taraji	2	−1	3
14	Al Qous	2	0	2
15	Al Jubail	2	0	2
16	Al Baten	2	0	2
17	Al Hada	1	0	1
18	Afif	2	−1	1
19	Al Qwarah	2	−1	1
20	Al Sahel	2	−1	1
21	Al Loa	2	−2	1
22	Jubbah	2	−2	1
23	Jerash	1	−1	0
24	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
25	Qilwah	1	−1	0
26	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
27	Al Gottah	1	−2	0
28	Al-Washm	2	−7	0