Al Safa v Al-Ain prediction · Division 2

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 19:48

Al Safa 0–3 Al-Ain AL-AIN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Ain win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.497

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Ain are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Safa 30%, draw 28%, Al-Ain 42%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Al Safa v Al-AinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Safa win30%

Draw28%

Al-Ain win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 16:55

RoundMatchday 3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Safa

Al-Ain

15Days since last match185

Last match: 9 Oct · Division 2

Last match: 22 Apr · Division 2

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Al Safa	1	+1	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-ain winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Al-Ain a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Safa v Al-Ain~~1.20 – 1.48

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Safa win	30%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Al-Ain win	42%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Al Safa or draw	58%	–	–
Al Safa clean sheet	23%	–	–
Al-Ain clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.1%

0123450 8.1 9.1 7.5 3.7 1 7.2 13.1 8.8 4.4 2 5.0 7.2 5.3 2.6 3 2.0 2.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Safa down, Al-Ain across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,148 Division 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.25 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Safa at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Ain away: 1.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for Al Safa, 1.48 for Al-Ain. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALA 3–2 ALS · ALS 0–3 ALA · ALS 0–0 ALA · ALA 4–1 ALS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct

AL SAFA

W2–1

AL-AIN

No matches in our record yet.

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
2	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
3	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
4	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
5	Al Sahel	3	0	4
6	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
7	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
8	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
9	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
10	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
11	Baish	1	+1	3
12	Al Safa	1	+1	3
13	Najran	1	+1	3
14	Arar	2	0	3
15	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
16	Al Qous	2	0	2
17	Al Jubail	2	0	2
18	Al Baten	2	0	2
19	Al Hada	1	0	1
20	Afif	2	−1	1
21	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
22	Al Loa	2	−2	1
23	Jubbah	2	−2	1
24	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
25	Jerash	1	−1	0
26	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
27	Qilwah	1	−1	0
28	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
29	Al-Washm	2	−7	0