Al Rawdhah v Al Loa prediction · Division 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al RawdhahDrawAl Loa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Loa 47%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Loa are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Rawdhah 27%, draw 26%, Al Loa 47%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 58%.

The AI’s read on Al Rawdhah v Al LoaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 23 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Rawdhah win27%

Draw26%

Al Loa win47%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Rawdhah

Al Loa

5Days since last match12

Last match: 24 Oct · Division 2

Last match: 17 Oct · Division 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
22	Al Loa	2	−2	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al loa winFirst published 23 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market–

Us47%

We make Al Loa a 47% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Rawdhah v Al Loa~~1.22 – 1.67

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 10 Oct~~W1 D1 L0 · W0 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 3 v 1~~9 v 22

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Loa win

Published at 48%, 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Rawdhah win	27%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Al Loa win	47%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	55%	–	–
Both teams to score	58%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	79%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	–	–
Al Rawdhah or draw	53%	–	–
Al Rawdhah clean sheet	19%	–	–
Al Loa clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.8 8.3 7.7 4.3 1 5.8 12.3 9.3 5.2 2.2 2 4.2 6.8 5.6 3.1 3 2.8 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Rawdhah down, Al Loa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Division 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Al Rawdhah at home: 1.00 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Loa away: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.22 goals for Al Rawdhah, 1.67 for Al Loa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 10 Oct

AL RAWDHAH

WD2–0 · 0–0

AL LOA

DL2–2 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
2	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
3	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
4	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
5	Al Sahel	3	0	4
6	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
7	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
8	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
9	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
10	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
11	Baish	1	+1	3
12	Al Safa	1	+1	3
13	Najran	1	+1	3
14	Arar	2	0	3
15	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
16	Al Qous	2	0	2
17	Al Jubail	2	0	2
18	Al Baten	2	0	2
19	Al Hada	1	0	1
20	Afif	2	−1	1
21	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
22	Al Loa	2	−2	1
23	Jubbah	2	−2	1
24	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
25	Jerash	1	−1	0
26	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
27	Qilwah	1	−1	0
28	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
29	Al-Washm	2	−7	0