Al Qwarah v Al Safa prediction · Division 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al QwarahDrawAl Safa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:25

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Qwarah 44%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Qwarah are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Qwarah 44%, draw 28%, Al Safa 28%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Al Qwarah v Al SafaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

Al Qwarah win44%

Draw28%

Al Safa win28%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:25

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Qwarah

Al Safa

5Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · Division 2

Last match: 24 Oct · Division 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Al Safa	1	+1	3
24	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al qwarah winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Al Qwarah a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Qwarah v Al Safa~~1.49 – 1.15

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 3~~24 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Qwarah win	44%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Al Safa win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	49%	–	–
Both teams to score	53%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	75%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Al Qwarah or draw	72%	–	–
Al Qwarah clean sheet	32%	–	–
Al Safa clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 8.5 7.2 4.7 1 9.6 13.0 6.9 2.7 2 7.9 8.8 5.1 3 4.0 4.4 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Qwarah down, Al Safa across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,148 Division 2 matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.7% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2026/27.

Home and away form

Al Qwarah at home: 2.00 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 1). Al Safa away: 1.33 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.49 goals for Al Qwarah, 1.15 for Al Safa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2026/27

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2026/27.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct

AL QWARAH

DLL0–0 · 2–3 · 1–3

AL SAFA

WL2–1 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
2	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
3	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
4	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
5	Al Sahel	3	0	4
6	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
7	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
8	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
9	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
10	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
11	Baish	1	+1	3
12	Al Safa	1	+1	3
13	Najran	1	+1	3
14	Arar	2	0	3
15	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
16	Al Qous	2	0	2
17	Al Jubail	2	0	2
18	Al Baten	2	0	2
19	Al Hada	1	0	1
20	Afif	2	−1	1
21	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
22	Al Loa	2	−2	1
23	Jubbah	2	−2	1
24	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
25	Jerash	1	−1	0
26	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
27	Qilwah	1	−1	0
28	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
29	Al-Washm	2	−7	0