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Al Najoom v Al-Kawkab

Al Najoom

1–2Full time

Al-Kawkab

Division 2 · SAT 10 OCT

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 16:06

Al Najoom 1–2 Al-Kawkab AL NAJOOM WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Najoom win~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.783

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Najoom win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Al Najoom v Al-Kawkab
2′Little has changed for our model: Al Najoom 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–28–29
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Al Najoom 0–1 Al-Kawkab
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Al Najoom 0–1 Al-Kawkab
35′⚽ GOAL · 35' Al Najoom 0–1 Al-Kawkab
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Al Najoom 0–1 Al-Kawkab
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Al Najoom 1–1 Al-Kawkab
37′⚽ GOAL · 37' Al Najoom 1–1 Al-Kawkab
38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Al Najoom 1–1 Al-Kawkab
39′⚽ GOAL · 39' Al Najoom 1–1 Al-Kawkab
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al Najoom 1–1 Al-Kawkab
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Al Najoom win 34%)
45′HALF-TIME Al Najoom 1–1 Al-Kawkab
46′SECOND HALF Al Najoom 1–1 Al-Kawkab
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' Al Najoom 1–1 Al-Kawkab
48′⚽ GOAL · 48' Al Najoom 1–1 Al-Kawkab
51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Al Najoom 1–1 Al-Kawkab
61′We said Al Najoom at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 5%. 1–2 · 5–21–74
61′⚽ GOAL · 61' Al Najoom 1–2 Al-Kawkab
61′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 61' Al Najoom win: 42% at kick-off, 5% now
61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Al-Kawkab win is now our likeliest result at 74% (was Draw 21%)
72′⚽ GOAL · 72' Al Najoom 1–2 Al-Kawkab
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Al Najoom 1–2 Al-Kawkab
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Al Najoom 1–2 Al-Kawkab
80′We said Al Najoom at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 1%. 1–2 · 1–11–88
80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Al Najoom win: 42% at kick-off, 1% now
FTFULL TIME Al Najoom 1–2 Al-Kawkab
FTAl Najoom 1–2 Al-Kawkab · Al Najoom win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Al Najoom win42%

Draw30%

Al-Kawkab win28%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:10

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al najoom winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Al Najoom a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Najoom win	42%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Al-Kawkab win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	47%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	68%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Al Najoom or draw	72%	–	–
Al Najoom clean sheet	37%	–	–
Al-Kawkab clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.0%

0123450 11.3 9.0 5.1 1 11.8 14.0 6.5 2.2 2 8.3 8.3 4.2 3 3.6 3.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Najoom down, Al-Kawkab across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,127 Division 2 matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 51.5% of games recently, across 400 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Al Najoom at home: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Kawkab away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Al Najoom, 1.01 for Al-Kawkab. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2016

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Division 2

AL NAJOOM

DDDWWL1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

AL-KAWKAB

LWDLDD0–3 · 2–1 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Rayan	1	+2	3
2	Al Safa	1	+1	3
3	Al Taraji	1	+1	3
4	Al-Wajj	1	+1	3
5	Al Baten	1	0	1
6	Al Qwarah	1	0	1
7	Afif	1	−1	0
8	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
9	Al Sahel	1	−1	0
10	Al Gottah	1	−2	0