Al Nairyah v Al Taraji prediction · Division 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al NairyahDrawAl Taraji

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:05

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Nairyah 57%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Nairyah are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Nairyah 57%, draw 23%, Al Taraji 21%. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 61%.

The AI’s read on Al Nairyah v Al TarajiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Nairyah win57%

Draw23%

Al Taraji win21%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:05

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Nairyah

Al Taraji

4Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · Division 2

Last match: 23 Oct · Division 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
24	Al Nairyah	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al nairyah winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off

57% The market–

Us57%

We make Al Nairyah a 57% chance to win. The model expects 2.1–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Nairyah v Al Taraji~~2.06 – 1.17

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 4~~24 v 9

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Nairyah win

Published at 56%, 57% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Nairyah win	57%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Al Taraji win	21%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	62%	–	–
Both teams to score	61%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	–	–
Al Nairyah or draw	79%	–	–
Al Nairyah clean sheet	31%	–	–
Al Taraji clean sheet	13%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 5.0 3.8 2.8 1 7.3 10.4 5.6 2.2 2 8.3 9.6 5.6 2.2 3 5.7 6.6 3.8 4 3.0 3.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Nairyah down, Al Taraji across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Division 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Al Nairyah at home: 2.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al Taraji away: 1.33 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.06 goals for Al Nairyah, 1.17 for Al Taraji. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct

AL NAIRYAH

LD0–1 · 2–2

AL TARAJI

WLD1–0 · 1–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Sharq	3	+7	7
2	Al Entesar	3	+3	7
3	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
4	Baish	2	+2	6
5	Al-Kawkab	3	0	6
6	Al Hada	2	+3	4
7	Al Rawdhah	2	+2	4
8	Al Sahel	3	0	4
9	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
10	Al Arabi SC	3	−1	4
11	Al-Ain	1	+3	3
12	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
13	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
14	Najran	1	+1	3
15	Al Qous	3	0	3
16	Al Shoalah	2	0	3
17	Arar	2	0	3
18	Al Najoom	3	−1	3
19	Al Safa	2	−2	3
20	Al Baten	2	0	2
21	Al Jubail	3	−1	2
22	Jubbah	3	−2	2
23	Mudhar Club	1	0	1
24	Al Nairyah	2	−1	1
25	Qilwah	2	−1	1
26	Afif	3	−2	1
27	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
28	Al Loa	2	−2	1
29	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
30	Jerash	1	−1	0
31	Al-Washm	2	−7	0