Al-Kawkab v Al Jubail prediction · Division 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al-KawkabDrawAl Jubail

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 17:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Kawkab 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Kawkab are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Kawkab 41%, draw 29%, Al Jubail 30%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Al-Kawkab v Al JubailBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Kawkab win41%

Draw29%

Al Jubail win30%

Kick-offTHU 29 OCT · 17:00

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Kawkab

Al Jubail

5Days since last match5

Last match: 24 Oct · Division 2

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
17	Al Jubail	2	0	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-kawkab winFirst published 25 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Al-Kawkab a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Kawkab v Al Jubail~~1.36 – 1.12

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 10 Oct~~W2 D0 L1 · W0 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 6 v 2~~3 v 17

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Kawkab win	41%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Al Jubail win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	51%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Al-Kawkab or draw	70%	–	–
Al-Kawkab clean sheet	33%	–	–
Al Jubail clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 9.8 8.2 5.3 2.0 1 10.2 13.7 7.0 2.7 2 7.7 8.4 4.7 3 3.5 3.9 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Kawkab down, Al Jubail across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Division 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2024/25.

Home and away form

Al-Kawkab at home: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Al Jubail away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 2).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Al-Kawkab, 1.12 for Al Jubail. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2024/25

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2024/25.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 10 Oct

AL-KAWKAB

WWL2–1 · 3–1 · 1–4

AL JUBAIL

DDL2–2 · 0–0 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
2	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
3	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
4	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
5	Al Sahel	3	0	4
6	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
7	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
8	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
9	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
10	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
11	Baish	1	+1	3
12	Al Safa	1	+1	3
13	Najran	1	+1	3
14	Arar	2	0	3
15	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
16	Al Qous	2	0	2
17	Al Jubail	2	0	2
18	Al Baten	2	0	2
19	Al Hada	1	0	1
20	Afif	2	−1	1
21	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
22	Al Loa	2	−2	1
23	Jubbah	2	−2	1
24	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
25	Jerash	1	−1	0
26	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
27	Qilwah	1	−1	0
28	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
29	Al-Washm	2	−7	0