Al Gottah v Al Sahel prediction · Division 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al GottahDrawAl Sahel

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Sahel 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Al Sahel just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Gottah 34%, draw 28%, Al Sahel 38%. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Al Gottah v Al SahelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Gottah win34%

Draw28%

Al Sahel win38%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Gottah

Al Sahel

5Days since last match5

Last match: 23 Oct · Division 2

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Sahel	3	0	4
21	Al Gottah	2	−2	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al sahel winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Al Sahel a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Gottah v Al Sahel~~1.30 – 1.40

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D1 L1 · W1 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 1 v 4~~21 v 5

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Sahel win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Gottah win	34%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Al Sahel win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	51%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Al Gottah or draw	62%	–	–
Al Gottah clean sheet	25%	–	–
Al Sahel clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.1 8.3 6.6 3.1 1 7.6 13.2 8.4 4.0 2 5.7 7.8 5.4 2.6 3 2.5 3.4 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Gottah down, Al Sahel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Division 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

No meeting between these two in any competition we cover since 2025/26.

Home and away form

Al Gottah at home: 2.50 scored, 2.50 conceded a game (last 6). Al Sahel away: 2.50 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.30 goals for Al Gottah, 1.40 for Al Sahel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

No meetings since 2025/26

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2025/26.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct

AL GOTTAH

LD1–3 · 2–2

AL SAHEL

LDW0–1 · 2–2 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
2	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
3	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
4	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
5	Al Sahel	3	0	4
6	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
7	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
8	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
9	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
10	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
11	Baish	1	+1	3
12	Al Safa	1	+1	3
13	Najran	1	+1	3
14	Arar	2	0	3
15	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
16	Al Qous	2	0	2
17	Al Jubail	2	0	2
18	Al Baten	2	0	2
19	Al Hada	1	0	1
20	Afif	2	−1	1
21	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
22	Al Loa	2	−2	1
23	Jubbah	2	−2	1
24	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
25	Jerash	1	−1	0
26	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
27	Qilwah	1	−1	0
28	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
29	Al-Washm	2	−7	0