Afif v Al-Ain prediction · Division 2

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AfifDrawAl-Ain

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Ain 41%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Ain are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Afif 31%, draw 28%, Al-Ain 41%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Afif v Al-AinBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Afif win31%

Draw28%

Al-Ain win41%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 12:30

RoundMatchday 4

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Afif

Al-Ain

4Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Division 2

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
20	Afif	2	−1	1

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-ain winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off

41% The market–

Us41%

We make Al-Ain a 41% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Afif v Al-Ain~~1.24 – 1.45

~~Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct~~W0 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al-Ain win

Published at 39%, 41% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Afif win	31%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Al-Ain win	41%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Afif or draw	59%	–	–
Afif clean sheet	24%	–	–
Al-Ain clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 8.1 8.7 7.1 3.5 1 7.3 13.2 8.7 4.3 2 5.2 7.5 5.4 2.6 3 2.2 3.1 2.3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Afif down, Al-Ain across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,157 Division 2 matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 2 matches have gone over 2.5 in 57.1% of games this season, across 35 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Afif at home: 1.50 scored, 2.00 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Ain away: 2.17 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.24 goals for Afif, 1.45 for Al-Ain. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~AFI 1–2 ALA · ALA 2–1 AFI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Division 2 this season · since 9 Oct

AFIF

LDL1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2

AL-AIN

W3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al-Wajj	3	+3	7
2	Al Entesar	2	+3	6
3	Al-Kawkab	2	+3	6
4	Al Sharq	2	+5	4
5	Al Sahel	3	0	4
6	Al Taraji	3	−1	4
7	Al Qalah	1	+2	3
8	Al Shoalah	1	+2	3
9	Al Rawdhah	1	+2	3
10	Al Rayan	2	+1	3
11	Baish	1	+1	3
12	Al Safa	1	+1	3
13	Najran	1	+1	3
14	Arar	2	0	3
15	Al Arabi SC	2	−1	3
16	Al Qous	2	0	2
17	Al Jubail	2	0	2
18	Al Baten	2	0	2
19	Al Hada	1	0	1
20	Afif	2	−1	1
21	Al Gottah	2	−2	1
22	Al Loa	2	−2	1
23	Jubbah	2	−2	1
24	Al Qwarah	3	−3	1
25	Jerash	1	−1	0
26	Al Nairyah	1	−1	0
27	Qilwah	1	−1	0
28	Al Najoom	2	−2	0
29	Al-Washm	2	−7	0