Jeddah Club v Al Jabalain prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 21 Oct 20:30

Jeddah Club 0–1 Al Jabalain AL JABALAIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Jabalain win~~46%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.436

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.218

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Jabalain win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Jabalain 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 24–30–46
1′KICK-OFF Jeddah Club v Al Jabalain
12′🟨 YELLOW · 11' A. B. Baazeem · Jeddah Club
27′Al Jabalain ahead on 27′ through Luvannor. 0–1. 0–1 · 6–17–77
27′⚽ GOAL · 27' Jeddah Club 0–1 Al Jabalain · Luvannor
27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Al Jabalain win: 46% at kick-off, 77% now
28′We said Al Jabalain at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 0–1 · 6–17–77
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 6–17–77
45′HALF-TIME Jeddah Club 0–1 Al Jabalain
45′SECOND HALF Jeddah Club 0–1 Al Jabalain
49′We said Al Jabalain at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' N. Al Mutairi · Al Jabalain
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al Jabalain · On: A. Al Bukhari · Off: N. Al Mutairi
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Carlos Daniel · Al Jabalain
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Jeddah Club · On: M. Biteghe · Off: A. B. Baazeem
63′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Jeddah Club · On: H. Mukhtar · Off: M. Sroler
67′We said Al Jabalain at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Al Jabalain win: 46% at kick-off, 86% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Jabalain · On: H. Al Nuweqi · Off: Carlos Daniel Corrected
74′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Jabalain · On: H. Al Sultan · Off: R. Akanbi
77′We said Al Jabalain at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Jeddah Club · On: A. Muidh Al Essa · Off: F. K. Al Sahafi
83′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Jeddah Club · On: M. Al Saiari · Off: H. Al Ghamdi
84′We said Al Jabalain at 46% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al Jabalain · On: H. Al Nuweqi · Off: Enio
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al Jabalain · On: M. Khalifah · Off: I. Al Nakhli
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Al Jabalain win: 46% at kick-off, 96% now
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+2' Jeddah Club · On: M. Zamzami · Off: N. Asiri
FTFULL TIME Jeddah Club 0–1 Al Jabalain
FTJeddah Club 0–1 Al Jabalain · Al Jabalain win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Jabalain are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Jeddah Club 24%, draw 30%, Al Jabalain 46%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on Jeddah Club v Al JabalainBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

Jeddah Club win24%

Draw30%

Al Jabalain win46%

Kick-offWED 21 OCT · 17:50

RoundMatchday 8

VenueKing Abdullah Sports City

Line-ups

Jeddah Club

Al Jabalain

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Jeddah Club

Al Jabalain

7Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

Last match: 13 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Al Jabalain	7	+2	12
13	Jeddah Club	7	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Jeddah Club

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Al Mosailem

6 F. K. Al Sahafi

5 N. Asiri

33 F. Othman

99 R. Fallatah

4 A. Al Shamrani

15 M. Al Dhafiri

7 A. B. Baazeem

10 M. Sroler

90 H. Al Ghamdi

8 E. C. Ememe

Coach · Maher Al-Shammari

Substitutes

87 · F. Al Johani

55 · M. Biteghe

57 · R. Matmi

24 · A. Adam

80 · A. Muidh Al Essa

19 · H. Mukhtar

70 · M. Al Saiari

11 · S. Al Rashed

66 · M. Zamzami

Al Jabalain

Formation not confirmed

30 M. Al Waked

4 A. Al Mhemaid

87 G. Hawsawi

88 I. Al Nakhli

20 N. Al Mutairi

8 Y. Semedo

5 I. Al Nakhli

10 Enio

28 Carlos Daniel

61 R. Akanbi

90 Luvannor

Coach · Filipe Gouveia

Substitutes

1 · A. Al Ghubaini

33 · A. Al Bukhari

27 · H. Al Nuweqi

17 · H. Al Majhad

6 · A. Al Harbi

18 · K. S. Al-Shammari

21 · M. Al Anazi

71 · H. Al Sultan

99 · M. Khalifah

Our number · al jabalain winFirst published 15 Oct 04:33 · locked at kick-off

46% The market62%

Us46%

~~Market~~62%

We make Al Jabalain a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Jeddah Club v Al Jabalain~~0.92 – 1.37

~~Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 27 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W3 D3 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 12~~13 v 5

~~The market · Al Jabalain win~~62% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Jabalain win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Jeddah Club win	24%	15%	+9
Draw	30%	23%	+7
Al Jabalain win	46%	62%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	40%	48%	−8
Both teams to score	45%	45%	0
Over 1.5 goals	67%	71%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	20%	28%	−8
Jeddah Club or draw	54%	38%	+16
Jeddah Club clean sheet	26%	–	–
Al Jabalain clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 11.5 12.8 9.5 4.4 1 8.3 13.5 8.5 3.9 2 4.3 5.8 3.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Jeddah Club down, Al Jabalain across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,675 Division 1 matches up to 20 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 67 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 4 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Jeddah Club at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al Jabalain away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.92 goals for Jeddah Club, 1.37 for Al Jabalain. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~JED 1–3 ALJ · ALJ 4–1 JED · ALJ 1–0 JED · JED 0–0 ALJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 27 Aug

JEDDAH CLUB

WDDLLL1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–2 · 0–1

AL JABALAIN

WDDWDW1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	7	+13	19
2	Al Zulfi	8	+8	14
3	Al Najma	8	+5	13
4	Al-Adalah	8	+2	12
5	Al Jabalain	7	+2	12
6	Damac	8	+1	12
7	Al Wehda Club	7	+7	11
8	Al Anwar	7	+2	10
9	Al Saqer	8	+1	10
10	Al-Raed	8	−4	10
11	Al Taee	8	−8	10
12	Al Orubah	7	0	8
13	Jeddah Club	7	−2	8
14	Al Okhdood	8	−6	7
15	Al Jandal	7	0	6
16	Hajer	7	−5	6
17	Al Bukayriyah	8	−9	3
18	Al Jeel	6	−7	2