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Model 1.2

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Hajer v Al Najma

Hajer
2–4Full time
Al Najma

Division 1 · TUE 20 OCT · Hajer Club Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 18:31
Hajer 2–4 Al Najma AL NAJMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Najma win47%
The market said56%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.428
The market’s Brier score0.287

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay23 notes · 36 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Najma win at 47%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Al Najma was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 46% now. 0–0 · 25–28–46
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Hajer v Al Najma
  4. 34′We said Al Najma at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 15%. 1–0 · 60–25–15
  5. 34′⚽ GOAL · 34' Hajer 1–0 Al Najma
  6. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Al Najma win: 47% at kick-off, 15% now
  7. 34′THE CALL SWINGS · 34' Hajer win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Al Najma win 40%)
  8. 36′W. Zaidi scores for Hajer on 34′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 61–25–14
  9. 36′We said Al Najma at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 61–25–14
  10. 37′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 61–25–14
  11. 42′We said Al Najma at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 3%. 2–0 · 87–9–3
  12. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Hajer 2–0 Al Najma
  13. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 42' Al Najma win: 47% at kick-off, 3% now
  14. 43′42′: A. Amoah on the scoresheet for Hajer, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 88–9–3
  15. 45′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 64–25–12
  16. 45′HALF-TIME Hajer 2–1 Al Najma
  17. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Al Najma win: 47% at kick-off, 12% now
  18. 45′SECOND HALF Hajer 2–1 Al Najma
  19. 46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Hajer · On: M. Al Burayh · Off: A. Al Dossary
  20. 48′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Najma · On: A. Al Najjar · Off: A. Al Badah
  21. 49′🟥 RED CARD · 49' Hajer
  22. 50′🟨 YELLOW · 49' K. Bin Shuwayii · Al Najma
  23. 51′A red card for Hajer on 45′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 2–1 · 66–24–10
  24. 51′⚽ GOAL · 51' Hajer 2–1 Al Najma
  25. 52′Al Najma pull one back on 45′ through J. Novais. 2–1. 2–1 · 66–24–9
  26. 53′We said Al Najma at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 67–24–9
  27. 58′We said Al Najma at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 2–2 · 19–50–31
  28. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Al Najma win: 47% at kick-off, 7% now
  29. 58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Hajer 2–2 Al Najma
  30. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Al Najma win: 47% at kick-off, 31% now
  31. 58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Hajer win 69%)
  32. 59′C. Souleymane scores for Al Najma on 58′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 19–51–30
  33. 60′We said Al Najma at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 2–2 · 18–52–29
  34. 61′4 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 18–53–29
  35. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Al Najma win: 47% at kick-off, 27% now
  36. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hajer · On: A. Al Hurayb · Off: W. Zaidi
  37. 66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Hajer · On: O. Al Mubaireek · Off: F. Al Asmari
  38. 68′We said Al Najma at 47%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 2–2 · 15–60–24
  39. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Al Najma · On: S. Al Saeed · Off: K. Al Khathlan
  40. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Al Najma · On: M. Al Kunaydiri · Off: M. Sahlouli
  41. 77′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 77' Al Najma win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  42. 78′We published Al Najma at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 2–3 · 1–9–90
  43. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Hajer 2–3 Al Najma
  44. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Al Najma win: 47% at kick-off, 90% now
  45. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Al Najma win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 74%)
  46. 79′78′: S. Al Saeed on the scoresheet for Al Najma, making it 2–3. 2–3 · 1–9–90
  47. 80′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–3 · 0–8–91
  48. 80′🟨 YELLOW · 80' C. Souleymane · Al Najma
  49. 81′🟨 YELLOW · 81' D. Queiros · Al Najma
  50. 85′We published Al Najma at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 2–3 · 0–5–95
  51. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Hajer · On: W. Ghazwani · Off: A. Amoah
  52. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 81' A. Al Najjar · Al Najma
  53. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Al Najma win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  54. 91′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Al Najma · On: E. Madani · Off: C. Souleymane Corrected
  55. 93′SUBSTITUTION · 90+3' Hajer · On: K. Al Haj · Off: H. Al Harbi Corrected
  56. 94′We published Al Najma at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  57. 94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Hajer 2–4 Al Najma
  58. 95′6 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  59. 96′Al Najma ahead on 90′ through A. Al Najjar. 2–4. 2–4 · 0–0–100
  60. FTFULL TIME Hajer 2–4 Al Najma
  61. FTHajer 2–4 Al Najma · Al Najma win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Najma are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Hajer 25%, draw 28%, Al Najma 47%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Hajer v Al NajmaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Hajer win25%
Draw28%
Al Najma win47%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 15:45

RoundMatchday 8

VenueHajer Club Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Hajer

Al Najma

30Days since last match8

Last match: 20 Sept · the Saudi Division 1

Last match: 12 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
6Al Najma7+310
16Hajer6−36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al najma winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
47% The market56%
Us47%
Market56%

We make Al Najma a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are 9 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Hajer v Al Najma0.98 – 1.45
Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 23 AugW1 D3 L2 · W1 D4 L1
Table places · points 6 v 1016 v 6
The market · Al Najma win56% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 15:40
Our probability · Al Najma win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 56% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Hajer win25%18%+7
Draw28%25%+3
Al Najma win47%56%−9
Over 2.5 goals43%48%−5
Both teams to score47%49%−2
Over 1.5 goals70%71%−1
Over 3.5 goals23%28%−5
Hajer or draw53%44%+9
Hajer clean sheet25%––
Al Najma clean sheet39%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%
0123450 10.5 11.8 9.1 4.5 1 7.8 13.0 8.4 4.1 2 4.4 5.9 4.1 2.0 3 2.0 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Hajer down, Al Najma across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.51 of 2
Both scored1 of 2
Last meetingsALN 1–1 HAJ · HAJ 0–4 ALN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 23 Aug

HAJER

LWDDLD0–3 · 3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0

AL NAJMA

LDDDDW0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Al Ula7+1319
2Al Zulfi8+814
3Al Jabalain7+212
4Damac8+112
5Al Wehda Club7+711
6Al Najma7+310
7Al Anwar7+210
8Al Saqer8+110
9Al-Raed8−410
10Al Taee8−810
11Al-Adalah709
12Jeddah Club7−28
13Al Orubah607
14Al Okhdood7−47
15Al Jandal706
16Hajer6−36
17Al Jeel6−72
18Al Bukayriyah7−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.