Damac v Al Taee prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 19:01

Damac 4–1 Al Taee DAMAC WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Damac win~~43%

~~The market said~~54%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.484

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.320

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Damac win at 43%.
1′Much as we predicted: Damac was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
1′KICK-OFF Damac v Al Taee
29′29′: A. Bedrane on the scoresheet for Damac, making it 1–0. 1–0 · 72–19–10
29′We published Damac at 43%. Our model now makes it 72%. 1–0 · 72–19–10
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Damac 1–0 Al Taee · A. Bedrane
29′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 29' Damac win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–10
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Damac win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
45′HALF-TIME Damac 1–1 Al Taee
46′SECOND HALF Damac 1–1 Al Taee
47′Al Taee level it on 45′ through Simy. 1–1. 1–1 · 34–40–26
47′⚽ GOAL · 45+2' Damac 1–1 Al Taee · Simy
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+2' Damac win: 43% at kick-off, 34% now
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+2' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Damac win 74%)
50′Y. Meite scores for Damac on 50′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 75–19–6
50′We published Damac at 43%. Our model now makes it 75%. 2–1 · 75–19–6
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+5' Damac win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
50′⚽ GOAL · 50' Damac 2–1 Al Taee · Y. Meite
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' Damac win: 43% at kick-off, 75% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Damac win is now our likeliest result at 75% (was Draw 41%)
51′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 75–19–6
57′56′: Y. Meite on the scoresheet for Damac, making it 3–1. 3–1 · 95–4–1
57′We published Damac at 43%. Our model now makes it 95%. 3–1 · 95–4–1
57′⚽ GOAL · 56' Damac 3–1 Al Taee · Y. Meite
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Damac win: 43% at kick-off, 95% now
58′4 goals already, more than the 2.8 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 95–4–1
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' F. Al Jizani · Damac
61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Al Taee · On: N. Al Zaaqi · Off: M. Al Mutair
62′Damac ahead on 62′ through J. Al Hassan. 4–1. 4–1 · 99–0–0
62′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.8 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 99–0–0
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Damac 4–1 Al Taee · J. Al Hassan
63′We published Damac at 43%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
64′🟨 YELLOW · 63' J. Al Hassan · Damac
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Al Taee · On: H. Al Shammari · Off: Simy
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Al Taee · On: M. Al Harthi · Off: H. Al Habib
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Damac · On: Y. Sunbul · Off: F. Al Jizani
73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Damac · On: O. Al Khalaf · Off: A. Al Shahrani
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Taee · On: A. Al Shaya · Off: A. Al Dossary
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Taee · On: A. Al Alawi · Off: N. Al Qamiri
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Damac · On: Y. Naji · Off: I. Al Harbi
85′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Damac · On: A. Al Yousif · Off: J. Al Hassan
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Damac · On: A. Shuqayyiqi · Off: Y. Meite
FTFULL TIME Damac 4–1 Al Taee
FTDamac 4–1 Al Taee · Damac win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Damac are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Damac 43%, draw 27%, Al Taee 30%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Damac v Al TaeeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Damac win43%

Draw27%

Al Taee win30%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:20

RoundMatchday 8

VenuePrince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Line-ups

Damac

Al Taee

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Damac

Al Taee

7Days since last match7

Last match: 12 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Al Taee	7	−5	10
10	Damac	7	−2	9

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Damac

Formation not confirmed

47 A. Al Rashidi

12 S. Al Hawsawi

5 H. Rabei

3 A. Bedrane

23 J. Al Hassan

15 I. Al Harbi

6 I. Al Qarni

2 M. Sylla

99 F. Al Jizani

10 A. Al Shahrani

11 Y. Meite

Coach · Abderrazek Chebbi

Substitutes

30 · N. Al Ghamdi

33 · M. Al Baqaawi

24 · R. E. Yami

72 · A. Al Yousif

7 · Y. Sunbul

88 · O. Al Khalaf

14 · N. Al Ghamdi

80 · Y. Naji

78 · A. Shuqayyiqi

Al Taee

Formation not confirmed

27 M. Al Dhulayfai

23 N. Al Qamiri

44 M. Al Mutair

6 M. Les

12 A. Al Dossary

5 Eduardo Henrique

20 J. Qarradi

7 A. Al Dosari

15 H. Al Habib

10 A. Lopez

9 Simy

Coach · Dinko Jelicic

Substitutes

22 · A. Al Ammar

94 · N. Al Zaaqi

19 · A. Al Alawi

55 · M. Al Harthi

77 · K. Majrashi

47 · H. Al Shammari

14 · S. Al Saleem

88 · A. Al Shaya

Our number · damac winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

43% The market54%

Us43%

~~Market~~54%

We make Damac a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 11 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Damac v Al Taee~~1.55 – 1.25

~~Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 26 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W3 D1 L2

~~Table places · points 9 v 10~~10 v 8

~~The market · Damac win~~54% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Damac win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Damac win	43%	54%	−11
Draw	27%	25%	+2
Al Taee win	30%	21%	+9
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	−1
Both teams to score	56%	55%	+1
Over 1.5 goals	77%	76%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
Damac or draw	70%	79%	−9
Damac clean sheet	29%	–	–
Al Taee clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.4 6.8 4.8 2.0 1 8.6 12.5 7.2 3.0 2 7.3 8.8 5.5 2.3 3 3.8 4.6 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Damac down, Al Taee across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,669 Division 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.1% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Damac at home: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 3). Al Taee away: 1.33 scored, 3.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Damac, 1.25 for Al Taee. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~DAM 3–0 ALT · ALT 1–0 DAM · ALT 1–3 DAM · DAM 2–0 ALT

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 26 Aug

DAMAC

DDLWWL0–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2 · 0–3

AL TAEE

WWLDWL4–3 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–6

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	6	+13	18
2	Al Zulfi	7	+8	13
3	Al Jabalain	7	+2	12
4	Al Wehda Club	7	+7	11
5	Al Najma	7	+3	10
6	Al Anwar	7	+2	10
7	Al-Raed	7	−2	10
8	Al Taee	7	−5	10
9	Al-Adalah	7	0	9
10	Damac	7	−2	9
11	Jeddah Club	7	−2	8
12	Al Orubah	6	0	7
13	Al Saqer	7	−1	7
14	Al Okhdood	7	−4	7
15	Al Jandal	7	0	6
16	Hajer	6	−3	6
17	Al Jeel	6	−7	2
18	Al Bukayriyah	7	−9	2