Al Zulfi v Al Ula prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 19:01

Al Zulfi 1–1 Al Ula AL ULA WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al Ula win~~47%

~~The market said~~51%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.807

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.841

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Ula win at 47%.
0′KICK-OFF Al Zulfi v Al Ula
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Ula 47% before kick-off, 47% now. 0–0 · 25–28–47
22′🟨 YELLOW · 21' B. Malango · Al Zulfi
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Al Ula win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
45′HALF-TIME Al Zulfi 0–0 Al Ula
45′SECOND HALF Al Zulfi 0–0 Al Ula
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 43% (was Al Ula win 39%)
50′We said Al Ula at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 0–0 · 21–44–35
52′We said Al Ula at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 21–45–34
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 20–47–33
62′B. Malango scores for Al Zulfi on 62′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–23–6
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Al Zulfi 1–0 Al Ula · B. Malango
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 62' Al Ula win: 47% at kick-off, 6% now
62′THE CALL SWINGS · 62' Al Zulfi win is now our likeliest result at 71% (was Draw 52%)
63′We said Al Ula at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 6%. 1–0 · 72–22–6
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al Zulfi · On: M. Madani · Off: B. Malango
68′We said Al Ula at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 75–21–4
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Al Ula · On: A. Al Hatila · Off: A. Al Sulaiheem
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' M. Madani · Al Zulfi
87′The goal count is tracking the 2.5 we expected. 1–1 · 5–89–7
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Al Zulfi 1–1 Al Ula
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 89% (was Al Zulfi win 93%)
88′87′: Y. Y. Ibrahim on the scoresheet for Al Ula, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 4–90–6
90′1–1 at the end. Our 47% on Al Ula misses, and the record keeps it. 1–1 · 0–100–0
90′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al Zulfi · On: A. Al Anzy · Off: A. A. Al Nakhli
92′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Al Zulfi · On: B. Fallatah · Off: D. Bregu
95′SUBSTITUTION · 90+5' Al Zulfi · On: Z. Al Waleed · Off: M. Al Zahrani
FTFULL TIME Al Zulfi 1–1 Al Ula
FTAl Zulfi 1–1 Al Ula · Al Ula win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ula are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Zulfi 25%, draw 28%, Al Ula 47%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Al Zulfi v Al UlaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 13 Oct 05:25 · locked at kick-off

Al Zulfi win25%

Draw28%

Al Ula win47%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:05

RoundMatchday 8

VenueAl Zulfi Club Stadium

Line-ups

Al Zulfi

Al Ula

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Zulfi

Al Ula

6Days since last match11

Last match: 13 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

Last match: 8 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Zulfi

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Al Saleh

27 A. Daqarshawi

17 A. Abu Shaheen

67 M. Baker

4 A. A. Al Nakhli

25 Ricardo Ryller

21 D. Diallo

34 A. Al Shereid

15 M. Al Zahrani

10 D. Bregu

28 B. Malango

Coach · Habib Ben Romdhane

Substitutes

44 · A. Al Mushawah

66 · B. Fallatah

5 · S. Al Manhali

87 · S. Al Tumbukti

70 · A. Al Anzy

11 · M. Semreen

91 · N. Bouamer

77 · M. Madani

18 · Z. Al Waleed

Al Ula

Formation not confirmed

13 A. Atiah

14 F. Jumaiya

24 A. Al Dohaim

5 Y. Barbet

2 Y. Y. Ibrahim

29 M. Al Majhad

96 Michael

7 A. Horta

8 A. Al Sulaiheem

67 R. Quioto

91 S. Sow

Coach · Jose Peseiro

Substitutes

1 · A. Al Jubaya

23 · A. Al Obaid

4 · Y. Haqawi

10 · A. Al Khulaif

88 · S. Al Nabit

19 · A. Al Hatila

16 · Y. Al Honaifesh

6 · B. Al Omair

3 · A. AbdulRazaq

Our number · al ula winFirst published 13 Oct 05:25 · updated 19 Oct 13:42 · locked at kick-off

47% The market51%

Us47%

~~Market~~51%

We make Al Ula a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 51%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Zulfi v Al Ula~~1.01 – 1.50

~~Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 23 Aug~~W2 D4 L0 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 18~~2 v 1

~~The market · Al Ula win~~51% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Ula win The market, margin stripped

Published at 48%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 51% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Zulfi win	25%	22%	+3
Draw	28%	27%	+1
Al Ula win	47%	51%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	46%	46%	0
Both teams to score	50%	50%	0
Over 1.5 goals	72%	70%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	25%	26%	−1
Al Zulfi or draw	53%	49%	+4
Al Zulfi clean sheet	23%	–	–
Al Ula clean sheet	37%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.0%

0123450 9.5 11.3 9.1 4.6 1 7.3 13.0 9.0 4.5 2 4.2 6.1 4.5 2.3 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Zulfi down, Al Ula across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,669 Division 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.1% of games this season, across 61 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Zulfi at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Ula away: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.01 goals for Al Zulfi, 1.50 for Al Ula. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALU 4–2 ALZ · ALZ 0–0 ALU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 23 Aug

AL ZULFI

DDDDWW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 2–0

AL ULA

WWWWWW3–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	6	+13	18
2	Al Zulfi	7	+8	13
3	Al Jabalain	7	+2	12
4	Al Wehda Club	7	+7	11
5	Al Najma	7	+3	10
6	Al Anwar	7	+2	10
7	Al-Raed	7	−2	10
8	Al Taee	7	−5	10
9	Al-Adalah	7	0	9
10	Damac	7	−2	9
11	Jeddah Club	7	−2	8
12	Al Orubah	6	0	7
13	Al Saqer	7	−1	7
14	Al Okhdood	7	−4	7
15	Al Jandal	7	0	6
16	Hajer	6	−3	6
17	Al Jeel	6	−7	2
18	Al Bukayriyah	7	−9	2