Al Ula v Al Orubah prediction · Division 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al UlaDrawAl Orubah

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Ula 54%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Ula are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Ula 54%, draw 26%, Al Orubah 20%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 49%.

The AI’s read on Al Ula v Al OrubahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Ula win54%

Draw26%

Al Orubah win20%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 16:45

RoundMatchday 9

VenuePrince Mohammed bin Abdul Aziz Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Ula

Al Orubah

7Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

Last match: 20 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al ula winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

54% The market–

Us54%

We make Al Ula a 54% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.9, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Ula v Al Orubah~~1.67 – 0.93

~~Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 28 Aug~~W5 D1 L0 · W1 D5 L0

~~Table places · points 19 v 8~~1 v 12

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Ula win	54%	–	–
Draw	26%	–	–
Al Orubah win	20%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	48%	–	–
Both teams to score	49%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	27%	–	–
Al Ula or draw	80%	–	–
Al Ula clean sheet	40%	–	–
Al Orubah clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 8.7 6.1 3.3 1 11.5 12.3 5.2 2 10.3 9.3 4.3 3 5.8 5.2 2.4 4 2.5 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Ula down, Al Orubah across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,677 Division 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.2% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2025/26 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 1 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Ula at home: 2.50 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Orubah away: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.67 goals for Al Ula, 0.93 for Al Orubah. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025/26

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ALU 1–1 ALO · ALU 3–1 ALO · ALO 0–1 ALU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 28 Aug

AL ULA

WWWWWD1–0 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 5–1 · 1–1

AL ORUBAH

DDDWDD0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	7	+13	19
2	Al Jabalain	8	+3	15
3	Al Zulfi	8	+8	14
4	Al Najma	8	+5	13
5	Al Wehda Club	8	+7	12
6	Al-Adalah	8	+2	12
7	Damac	8	+1	12
8	Al Anwar	8	+2	11
9	Al Saqer	8	+1	10
10	Al-Raed	8	−4	10
11	Al Taee	8	−8	10
12	Al Orubah	7	0	8
13	Jeddah Club	8	−3	8
14	Al Okhdood	8	−6	7
15	Al Jandal	7	0	6
16	Hajer	7	−5	6
17	Al Bukayriyah	8	−9	3
18	Al Jeel	6	−7	2