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Al Saqer v Al Jabalain

Al Saqer

1–3Full time

Al Jabalain

Division 1 · TUE 13 OCT · King Abdullah Sports City Stadium

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:02

Al Saqer 1–3 Al Jabalain AL JABALAIN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Jabalain win~~35%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.625

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.509

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 32 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Jabalain win at 35%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Jabalain 35% before kick-off, 36% now. 0–0 · 34–30–36
1′KICK-OFF Al Saqer v Al Jabalain
28′THE CALL SWINGS · 28' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was Al Jabalain win 32%)
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Al Saqer 1–0 Al Jabalain
31′⚽ GOAL · 32' Al Saqer 1–0 Al Jabalain · R. Gabriel Silva
32′Al Saqer ahead on 29′ through R. Gabriel Silva. 1–0. 1–0 · 68–22–9
32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Al Jabalain win: 35% at kick-off, 9% now
32′THE CALL SWINGS · 32' Al Saqer win is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Draw 22%)
34′We said Al Jabalain at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 69–22–9
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 1–0 · 69–22–9
44′R. Akanbi scores for Al Jabalain on 44′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 71–22–7
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Al Saqer 1–0 Al Jabalain · R. Akanbi (assist N. Al Mutairi)
48′🟨 YELLOW · 49' G. Hawsawi · Al Jabalain
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Al Saqer 1–1 Al Jabalain · R. Akanbi
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Al Jabalain win: 35% at kick-off, 27% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 49' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Al Saqer win 26%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Al Jabalain win: 35% at kick-off, 5% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Al Jabalain win: 35% at kick-off, 25% now
57′We said Al Jabalain at 35%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–0 · 76–20–4
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Al Saqer 1–2 Al Jabalain · R. Akanbi
58′57′ and it is 1–2: Enio on the scoresheet for Al Jabalain. 1–2 · 4–19–77
58′⚽ GOAL · 57' Al Saqer 1–2 Al Jabalain · Enio (assist Carlos Daniel)
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Al Jabalain win: 35% at kick-off, 77% now
58′THE CALL SWINGS · 58' Al Jabalain win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
59′We said Al Jabalain at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 78%. 1–2 · 4–18–78
60′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 3–18–78
63′We said Al Jabalain at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–2 · 3–17–80
63′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Jabalain · On: H. Al Nuweqi · Off: G. Hawsawi
65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Al Saqer · On: M. Hamza · Off: S. Al Dulaylan
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al Saqer · On: T. Al Shaifan · Off: H. Al Mousa
73′We said Al Jabalain at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 1–13–85
74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' Al Jabalain win: 35% at kick-off, 85% now
74′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al Jabalain · On: H. Al Sultan · Off: R. Akanbi
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al Jabalain · On: A. Al Bukhari · Off: N. Al Mutairi
80′We said Al Jabalain at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al Saqer · On: F. Al Dawood · Off: M. Hamza
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al Saqer · On: M. Al Tuwaijri · Off: M. Kpatai
86′We said Al Jabalain at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Al Jabalain win: 35% at kick-off, 95% now
86′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Al Jabalain · On: H. Al Majhad · Off: Carlos Daniel
88′🟨 YELLOW · 90' K. S. Al-Shammari · Al Jabalain
94′⚽ GOAL · 96' Al Saqer 1–2 Al Jabalain · H. Al Majhad
95′Al Jabalain ahead on 90′ through H. Al Majhad. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
95′⚽ GOAL · 95' Al Saqer 1–3 Al Jabalain · H. Al Majhad
97′We said Al Jabalain at 35% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 1–3 · 0–0–100
98′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.1 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–0–100
98′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 98' Al Jabalain win: 35% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME Al Saqer 1–3 Al Jabalain
FTAl Saqer 1–3 Al Jabalain · Al Jabalain win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 15:46 · locked at kick-off

Al Saqer win33%

Draw32%

Al Jabalain win35%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 16:15

VenueKing Abdullah Sports City Stadium

Line-ups

Al Saqer

Al Jabalain

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al Saqer

Al Jabalain

25Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Al Jabalain	6	0	9
11	Al Saqer	6	+1	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Saqer

Formation not confirmed

77 F. Al Shammari

66 H. Al Mousa

12 A. Al Qassem

33 Milani

17 S. Al Saeed

15 M. Al Shudukhi

88 S. Al Dulaylan

18 Joao Erick

11 J. Assehnoun

99 R. Gabriel Silva

8 M. Kpatai

Coach · –

Substitutes

34 · A. Al Hussayen

3 · H. Hawsawi

28 · T. Al Shaifan

16 · H. Sufyani

79 · M. Hamza

27 · M. Al Tuwaijri

14 · M. Al Dawas

9 · F. Al Dawood

19 · Y. Azzam

Al Jabalain

Formation not confirmed

30 M. Al Waked

4 A. Al Mhemaid

87 G. Hawsawi

88 I. Al Nakhli

20 N. Al Mutairi

5 I. Al Nakhli

10 Enio

8 Y. Semedo

61 R. Akanbi

28 Carlos Daniel

90 Luvannor

Coach · Filipe Gouveia

Substitutes

1 · A. Al Ghubaini

33 · A. Al Bukhari

27 · H. Al Nuweqi

17 · H. Al Majhad

6 · A. Al Harbi

18 · K. S. Al-Shammari

21 · M. Al Anazi

71 · H. Al Sultan

99 · M. Khalifah

Our number · al jabalain winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 15:46 · locked at kick-off

35% The market42%

Us35%

~~Market~~42%

We make Al Jabalain a 35% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 6 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al jabalain win The market, margin stripped

Published at 36%, 35% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Saqer win	33%	29%	+4
Draw	32%	29%	+3
Al Jabalain win	35%	42%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	36%	44%	−8
Both teams to score	44%	50%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	64%	68%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Al Saqer or draw	65%	58%	+6
Al Saqer clean sheet	34%	–	–
Al Jabalain clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.2%

0123450 13.1 11.8 7.0 2.6 1 11.2 14.2 7.2 2.7 2 6.4 6.9 3.8 3 2.3 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Saqer down, Al Jabalain across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,665 Division 1 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.8% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Al Saqer at home: 0.00 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 3). Al Jabalain away: 0.67 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Al Saqer, 1.10 for Al Jabalain. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Division 1 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Division 1

AL SAQER

DDDDLW0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 2–0

AL JABALAIN

LWDDWD1–3 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	6	+13	18
2	Al Wehda Club	7	+7	11
3	Al Zulfi	6	+6	10
4	Al Najma	7	+3	10
5	Al Anwar	7	+2	10
6	Al Taee	7	−5	10
7	Al-Adalah	7	0	9
8	Al Jabalain	6	0	9
9	Damac	7	−2	9
10	Jeddah Club	6	−1	8
11	Al Saqer	6	+1	7
12	Al Orubah	6	0	7
13	Al-Raed	6	−3	7
14	Hajer	6	−3	6
15	Al Okhdood	6	−4	6
16	Al Jandal	6	0	5
17	Al Bukayriyah	6	−7	2
18	Al Jeel	6	−7	2