Al-Raed v Jeddah Club prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 20:30

Al-Raed 1–0 Jeddah Club AL-RAED WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al-Raed win~~56%

~~The market said~~59%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.293

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.258

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al-Raed win at 56%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al-Raed was 56% before kick-off and our model makes it 57% now. 0–0 · 57–23–20
1′KICK-OFF Al-Raed v Jeddah Club
35′36′ and it is 0–0: K. Narey on the scoresheet for Al-Raed. 0–0 · 48–32–20
37′⚽ GOAL · 36' Al-Raed 1–0 Jeddah Club · K. Narey (assist S. Al Salouli)
38′We published Al-Raed at 56%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–15–5
38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Al-Raed win: 56% at kick-off, 80% now
39′Goals are coming at about the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 80–15–5
42′🟨 YELLOW · 42' O. Shami · Al-Raed
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al-Raed · On: H. Al Shammari · Off: M. Al Sufyani
45′SECOND HALF Al-Raed 1–0 Jeddah Club
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Jeddah Club · On: S. Al Rashed · Off: H. Al Ghamdi
58′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Jeddah Club · On: M. Al Saiari · Off: H. Mukhtar
65′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Al-Raed · On: Y. Al Harbi · Off: O. Shami
66′We published Al-Raed at 56%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
68′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Jeddah Club · On: M. Al Dhafiri · Off: M. Biteghe
69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' Al-Raed win: 56% at kick-off, 86% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Al-Raed · On: M. Al Oufi · Off: M. Kone
78′We published Al-Raed at 56%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
80′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Jeddah Club · On: R. Matmi · Off: M. Zamzami
80′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Jeddah Club · On: C. Jimenez · Off: N. Asiri
85′We published Al-Raed at 56%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Al-Raed win: 56% at kick-off, 96% now
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Al-Raed · On: Ziyad Al Refaei · Off: M. Al Oufi
88′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Al-Raed · On: A. Sahhari · Off: T. Al Shuqayran
90′Full time, 1–0. We called Al-Raed at 56% — that one lands. 1–0 · 100–0–0
93′🟨 YELLOW · 93' C. Jimenez · Jeddah Club
FTFULL TIME Al-Raed 1–0 Jeddah Club
FTAl-Raed 1–0 Jeddah Club · Al-Raed win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Al-Raed v Jeddah ClubBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

Al-Raed win56%

Draw24%

Jeddah Club win20%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 18:00

VenueKing Abdullah Sports City Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Raed

Jeddah Club

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al-Raed

Jeddah Club

25Days since last match26

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	Jeddah Club	6	-1	8
13	Al-Raed	6	-3	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Raed

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Ozaybi

2 T. Al Shuqayran

38 M. Al Dawsari

13 R. Mennioui

3 M. Doshy

11 M. Al Sufyani

8 O. Shami

5 S. Tweh

10 S. Al Salouli

9 M. Kone

7 K. Narey

Coach · Reda Hakam

Substitutes

88 · M. Al Otaibi

40 · A. Al Harbi

33 · Ziyad Al Refaei

87 · A. Sahhari

24 · B. Al Shardi

6 · Y. Al Harbi

20 · H. Al Shammari

77 · N. Hazazi

16 · M. Al Oufi

Jeddah Club

Formation not confirmed

1 Y. Al Mosailem

66 M. Zamzami

5 N. Asiri

33 F. Othman

99 R. Fallatah

7 A. B. Baazeem

55 M. Biteghe

4 A. Al Shamrani

90 H. Al Ghamdi

19 H. Mukhtar

10 M. Sroler

Coach · Maher Al-Shammari

Substitutes

87 · F. Al Johani

26 · C. Jimenez

6 · F. K. Al Sahafi

15 · M. Al Dhafiri

57 · R. Matmi

24 · A. Adam

80 · A. Muidh Al Essa

70 · M. Al Saiari

11 · S. Al Rashed

Our number · al-raed winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 17:28 · locked at kick-off

56% The market59%

Us56%

~~Market~~59%

We make Al-Raed a 56% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Raed v Jeddah Club~~1.84 – 1.00

~~Last six in Division 1~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~13 v 10

~~The market · Al-Raed win~~59% · ours 56%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al-raed win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Raed win	56%	59%	−3
Draw	24%	24%	+1
Jeddah Club win	20%	17%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	54%	51%	+2
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	78%	74%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	32%	31%	+1
Al-Raed or draw	80%	83%	−2
Al-Raed clean sheet	37%	–	–
Jeddah Club clean sheet	17%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.4%

0123450 7.0 5.1 3.0 1 10.0 11.4 5.3 2 9.8 9.5 4.8 3 6.0 5.9 2.9 4 2.8 2.8 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Raed down, Jeddah Club across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,667 Division 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 1.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Raed at home: 2.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Jeddah Club away: 1.00 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.84 goals for Al-Raed, 1.00 for Jeddah Club. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~1.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~JED 0–2 ALR · ALR 0–0 JED

Form · last six in Division 1

AL-RAED

WLLWDL1–0 · 2–3 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–4

JEDDAH CLUB

WWDDLL3–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	6	13	18
2	Al Zulfi	7	8	13
3	Al Jabalain	7	2	12
4	Al Wehda Club	7	7	11
5	Al Najma	7	3	10
6	Al Anwar	7	2	10
7	Al Taee	7	-5	10
8	Al-Adalah	7	0	9
9	Damac	7	-2	9
10	Jeddah Club	6	-1	8
11	Al Orubah	6	0	7
12	Al Saqer	7	-1	7
13	Al-Raed	6	-3	7
14	Hajer	6	-3	6
15	Al Okhdood	6	-4	6
16	Al Jandal	6	0	5
17	Al Jeel	6	-7	2
18	Al Bukayriyah	7	-9	2