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Model 1.2

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Al Orubah v Al Bukayriyah

Al Orubah
1–1Full time
Al Bukayriyah

Division 1 · TUE 20 OCT · Al-Jouf University Stadium

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 19:01
Al Orubah 1–1 Al Bukayriyah AL ORUBAH WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Al Orubah win52%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.816
The market’s Brier score0.799

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay12 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Al Orubah win at 52%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Al Orubah 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–29–20
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Al Orubah v Al Bukayriyah
  4. 34′🟨 YELLOW · 33' A. Al Sultan · Al Orubah
  5. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' Al Orubah win: 52% at kick-off, 42% now
  6. 42′We said Al Orubah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 40%. 0–0 · 40–41–18
  7. 45′We said Al Orubah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 39–43–18
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Al Orubah 0–0 Al Bukayriyah
  9. 45′SECOND HALF Al Orubah 0–0 Al Bukayriyah
  10. 47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 44% (was Al Orubah win 41%)
  11. 48′🟨 YELLOW · 47' N. Kaabi · Al Bukayriyah
  12. 51′SUBSTITUTION · 50' Al Bukayriyah · On: A. Owolabi · Off: N. Kaabi
  13. 55′We said Al Orubah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 34–49–16
  14. 58′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 58' Al Orubah win: 52% at kick-off, 32% now
  15. 61′A. Zoubir scores for Al Orubah on 60′. 0–0 · 31–54–15
  16. 61′We said Al Orubah at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  17. 61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Al Orubah 1–0 Al Bukayriyah · A. Zoubir
  18. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' Al Orubah win: 52% at kick-off, 85% now
  19. 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' Al Orubah win is now our likeliest result at 85% (was Draw 54%)
  20. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al Orubah · On: A. Al Khail · Off: H. Al Dubais
  21. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Al Bukayriyah · On: S. Al Muwallad · Off: A. Al Barakah
  22. 74′We said Al Orubah at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  23. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Al Orubah · On: F. Al Rasheed · Off: A. Al Sultan
  24. 75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al Orubah · On: K. Zakaria · Off: F. Al Rashidi
  25. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Al Orubah win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
  26. 80′We said Al Orubah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–79–7
  27. 80′⚽ GOAL · 80' Al Orubah 1–1 Al Bukayriyah
  28. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 80' Al Orubah win: 52% at kick-off, 14% now
  29. 80′THE CALL SWINGS · 80' Draw is now our likeliest result at 79% (was Al Orubah win 93%)
  30. 81′The goal count is tracking the 2.3 we expected. 1–1 · 13–81–7
  31. 82′Al Bukayriyah level it on 80′ through an own goal by M. Krishan. 1–1. 1–1 · 11–83–6
  32. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Al Orubah win: 52% at kick-off, 11% now
  33. 84′We said Al Orubah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–5
  34. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al Bukayriyah · On: A. M. Al Bishi · Off: I. Success
  35. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Al Bukayriyah · On: M. Al Harbi · Off: B. Kuwas
  36. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Al Orubah · On: L. Al Shahrani · Off: A. Al Harfi
  37. 91′We said Al Orubah at 52%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  38. 93′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+3' Al Orubah win: 52% at kick-off, 2% now
  39. FTFULL TIME Al Orubah 1–1 Al Bukayriyah
  40. FTAl Orubah 1–1 Al Bukayriyah · Al Orubah win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Orubah are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Orubah 52%, draw 29%, Al Bukayriyah 20%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Al Orubah v Al BukayriyahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Al Orubah win52%
Draw29%
Al Bukayriyah win20%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 16:20

RoundMatchday 8

VenueAl-Jouf University Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Orubah

Al Bukayriyah

30Days since last match7

Last match: 20 Sept · the Saudi Division 1

Last match: 13 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Al Orubah607
18Al Bukayriyah7−92

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al orubah winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off
52% The market48%
Us52%
Market48%

We make Al Orubah a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 4 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Al Orubah v Al Bukayriyah1.47 – 0.80
Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 22 AugW1 D4 L1 · W0 D1 L5
Table places · points 7 v 213 v 18
The market · Al Orubah win48% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55% 14 OCT 04:2820 OCT 16:10
Our probability · Al Orubah win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 48% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Al Orubah win52%48%+4
Draw29%28%+1
Al Bukayriyah win20%23%−3
Over 2.5 goals40%44%−4
Both teams to score43%48%−5
Over 1.5 goals67%68%−1
Over 3.5 goals20%24%−4
Al Orubah or draw80%77%+3
Al Orubah clean sheet45%––
Al Bukayriyah clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%
0123450 11.7 7.4 3.4 1 14.1 12.9 4.8 2 11.0 8.6 3.5 3 5.4 4.3 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Al Orubah down, Al Bukayriyah across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting1.25
Over 2.51 of 4
Both scored0 of 4
Last meetingsALO 3–0 ALB · ALB 1–0 ALO · ALB 0–0 ALO · ALO 1–0 ALB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 22 Aug

AL ORUBAH

LDDDWD0–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 0–0

AL BUKAYRIYAH

DLLLLL1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Al Ula7+1319
2Al Zulfi8+814
3Al Jabalain7+212
4Damac8+112
5Al Wehda Club7+711
6Al Najma7+310
7Al Anwar7+210
8Al Saqer8+110
9Al-Raed8−410
10Al Taee8−810
11Al-Adalah709
12Jeddah Club7−28
13Al Orubah607
14Al Okhdood7−47
15Al Jandal706
16Hajer6−36
17Al Jeel6−72
18Al Bukayriyah7−92

The competition's standings before kick-off.