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Al Okhdood v Al-Adalah

Al Okhdood

1–3Full time

Al-Adalah

Division 1 · TUE 20 OCT · Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City

Full timeGraded 20 Oct 20:31

Al Okhdood 1–3 Al-Adalah AL OKHDOOD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Okhdood win~~48%

~~The market said~~47%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.791

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.827

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Okhdood win at 48%.
1′KICK-OFF Al Okhdood v Al-Adalah
2′Much as we predicted: Al Okhdood was 48% before kick-off and our model makes it 48% now. 0–0 · 48–24–29
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' H. Al Nattar · Al-Adalah
33′🟨 YELLOW · 33' N. Al Hawsawi · Al Okhdood
36′Al-Adalah ahead on 35′ through D. Tijanic. 0–1. 0–1 · 18–24–58
36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Al Okhdood 0–1 Al-Adalah · D. Tijanic
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Al Okhdood win: 48% at kick-off, 18% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Al-Adalah win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Al Okhdood win 42%)
37′We said Al Okhdood at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 18%. 0–1 · 18–24–58
42′🟨 YELLOW · 41' J. Al Bashah · Al-Adalah
43′Z. Gano scores for Al Okhdood on 43′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 40–33–27
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Al Okhdood 1–1 Al-Adalah · Z. Gano
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Al Okhdood win: 48% at kick-off, 40% now
43′THE CALL SWINGS · 43' Al Okhdood win is now our likeliest result at 40% (was Al-Adalah win 60%)
44′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 1–1 · 40–34–26
45′HALF-TIME Al Okhdood 1–2 Al-Adalah
46′SECOND HALF Al Okhdood 1–2 Al-Adalah
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' A. Al Muwallad · Al-Adalah
49′45′: A. Teixeira on the scoresheet for Al-Adalah, making it 1–2. 1–2 · 14–24–62
49′⚽ GOAL · 45+4' Al Okhdood 1–2 Al-Adalah · A. Teixeira
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+4' Al Okhdood win: 48% at kick-off, 14% now
49′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+4' Al-Adalah win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Al Okhdood win 38%)
50′We said Al Okhdood at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–2 · 13–24–62
59′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Al Okhdood · On: K. Al Lazam · Off: A. Majrashi
61′We said Al Okhdood at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Al Okhdood win: 48% at kick-off, 8% now
69′Al-Adalah ahead on 68′ through S. Faqihi. 1–3. 1–3 · 1–5–94
69′⚽ GOAL · 68' Al Okhdood 1–3 Al-Adalah · S. Faqihi
70′We said Al Okhdood at 48%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 1%. 1–3 · 1–5–95
70′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Al-Adalah · On: A. Al Basha · Off: H. Al Nattar
71′4 goals already, more than the 3.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–3 · 1–4–95
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al-Adalah · On: A. Al Zaqaan · Off: J. Al Bashah
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al Okhdood · On: S. Al Qareh · Off: N. Al Hawsawi
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Al Okhdood · On: M. Al Jahif · Off: S. Salem Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Okhdood · On: Y. Al Zaraia · Off: Agi
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Al-Adalah · On: A. Al Khalifa · Off: K. Al Hamdhi
86′🟨 YELLOW · 86' S. Al Qareh · Al Okhdood
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Al-Adalah · On: K. Al Muziel · Off: A. Al Muwallad
FTFULL TIME Al Okhdood 1–3 Al-Adalah
FTAl Okhdood 1–3 Al-Adalah · Al Okhdood win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Okhdood are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Okhdood 48%, draw 23%, Al-Adalah 29%. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 65%.

The AI’s read on Al Okhdood v Al-AdalahBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

Al Okhdood win48%

Draw23%

Al-Adalah win29%

Kick-offTUE 20 OCT · 17:50

RoundMatchday 8

VenuePrince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Okhdood

Al-Adalah

6Days since last match8

Last match: 14 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

Last match: 12 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	Al-Adalah	7	0	9
14	Al Okhdood	7	−4	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al okhdood winFirst published 14 Oct 04:28 · locked at kick-off

48% The market47%

Us48%

~~Market~~47%

We make Al Okhdood a 48% chance to win. The market has them at 47%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.9–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Okhdood v Al-Adalah~~1.95 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 26 Aug~~W0 D4 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 9~~14 v 11

~~The market · Al Okhdood win~~47% · ours 48%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Okhdood win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 47% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Okhdood win	48%	47%	+1
Draw	23%	26%	−3
Al-Adalah win	29%	27%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	65%	53%	+12
Both teams to score	65%	56%	+9
Over 1.5 goals	85%	75%	+10
Over 3.5 goals	44%	32%	+12
Al Okhdood or draw	71%	73%	−2
Al Okhdood clean sheet	24%	–	–
Al-Adalah clean sheet	16%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.6 4.4 3.7 1 6.0 10.1 6.7 3.3 2 6.3 8.7 6.2 3.1 3 4.0 5.5 4.0 4 2.0 2.8 2.0 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Okhdood down, Al-Adalah across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,672 Division 1 matches up to 19 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.9% of games this season, across 64 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 0.50 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Okhdood at home: 1.83 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Adalah away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.95 goals for Al Okhdood, 1.46 for Al-Adalah. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~0.50

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~0 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALA 0–1 ALO · ALO 0–0 ALA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 26 Aug

AL OKHDOOD

DDDLLD1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 1–5 · 1–1

AL-ADALAH

LWDWLD3–4 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	7	+13	19
2	Al Zulfi	8	+8	14
3	Al Jabalain	7	+2	12
4	Damac	8	+1	12
5	Al Wehda Club	7	+7	11
6	Al Najma	7	+3	10
7	Al Anwar	7	+2	10
8	Al Saqer	8	+1	10
9	Al-Raed	8	−4	10
10	Al Taee	8	−8	10
11	Al-Adalah	7	0	9
12	Jeddah Club	7	−2	8
13	Al Orubah	6	0	7
14	Al Okhdood	7	−4	7
15	Al Jandal	7	0	6
16	Hajer	6	−3	6
17	Al Jeel	6	−7	2
18	Al Bukayriyah	7	−9	2