Al Najma v Damac prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:49

Al Najma 3–0 Damac AL NAJMA WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Najma win~~42%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.502

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.393

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Najma win at 42%.
1′KICK-OFF Al Najma v Damac
2′Little has changed for our model: Al Najma 42% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 43–27–30
21′🟨 YELLOW · 20' K. Bin Shuwayii · Al Najma
45′🟨 YELLOW · 46' I. Al Qarni · Damac
45′HALF-TIME Al Najma 0–0 Damac
46′SECOND HALF Al Najma 0–0 Damac
62′🟨 YELLOW · 20' K. Bin Shuwayii · Al Najma
62′🟨 YELLOW · 46' I. Al Qarni · Damac
64′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Al Najma · On: C. Souleymane · Off: M. Sahlouli
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Al Najma 1–0 Damac · C. Souleymane
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Damac · On: I. Al Harbi · Off: M. Sylla
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Al Najma 2–0 Damac · K. Al Khathlan
84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Al Najma · On: A. Al Najjar · Off: F. Al Mutairi
87′⚽ GOAL · 86' Al Najma 3–0 Damac · K. Al Khathlan
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Al Najma · On: E. Madani · Off: Marcos Andre
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Al Najma · On: S. Al Saeed · Off: A. Al Badah
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Al Najma · On: M. Al Kunaydiri · Off: K. Al Khathlan
FTFULL TIME Al Najma 3–0 Damac
FTAl Najma 3–0 Damac · Al Najma win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with a pass — 7 days or 30 days.

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

Al Najma win42%

Draw28%

Damac win29%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 16:15

VenueKing Abdullah Sports City Stadium

Line-ups

Al Najma

Damac

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al Najma

Damac

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Damac	6	+1	9
11	Al Najma	6	0	7

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al Najma

Formation not confirmed

22 B. Al Khamali

94 M. Al Rajeh

3 D. Queiros

70 K. Bin Shuwayii

13 K. Al Khathlan

17 A. Al Badah

16 M. Sahlouli

5 A. Taira

7 J. Novais

9 Marcos Andre

10 F. Al Mutairi

Coach · Jorge Mendonca

Substitutes

72 · S. Gabous

12 · M. Al Kunaydiri

6 · K. Al Shammari

21 · E. Madani

15 · A. Al Najjar

77 · S. Al Saeed

79 · Y. Al Garzaie

92 · C. Souleymane

20 · J. Muslet

Damac

Formation not confirmed

47 A. Al Rashidi

12 S. Al Hawsawi

5 H. Rabei

3 A. Bedrane

23 J. Al Hassan

6 I. Al Qarni

88 O. Al Khalaf

2 M. Sylla

10 A. Al Shahrani

99 F. Al Jizani

11 Y. Meite

Coach · Abderrazek Chebbi

Substitutes

30 · N. Al Ghamdi

72 · A. Al Yousif

7 · Y. Sunbul

15 · I. Al Harbi

14 · N. Al Ghamdi

80 · Y. Naji

78 · A. Shuqayyiqi

Our number · al najma winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

42% The market49%

Us42%

~~Market~~49%

We make Al Najma a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al najma win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 49% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Najma win	42%	49%	−7
Draw	28%	27%	+2
Damac win	29%	24%	+5
Over 2.5 goals	46%	48%	−3
Both teams to score	51%	52%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	72%	72%	0
Over 3.5 goals	25%	28%	−3
Al Najma or draw	71%	76%	−5
Al Najma clean sheet	33%	–	–
Damac clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.2%

0123450 9.4 8.2 5.1 1 10.3 13.2 6.9 2.6 2 7.8 8.5 4.7 3 3.7 4.0 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Najma down, Damac across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,662 Division 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.2% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Al Najma at home: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Damac away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for Al Najma, 1.12 for Damac. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meeting of these two in Division 1 since 2021 in our records. Only this competition's matches are held here: cup ties and meetings in other leagues are not, and we say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Division 1

AL NAJMA

WLDDDD2–1 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1

DAMAC

DDDLWW0–0 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–1 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	6	+13	18
2	Al Zulfi	6	+6	10
3	Al Taee	6	0	10
4	Al Anwar	6	+2	9
5	Damac	6	+1	9
6	Al Jabalain	6	0	9
7	Al Wehda Club	6	+2	8
8	Al-Adalah	6	0	8
9	Jeddah Club	6	−1	8
10	Al Saqer	6	+1	7
11	Al Najma	6	0	7
12	Al Orubah	6	0	7
13	Al-Raed	6	−3	7
14	Hajer	6	−3	6
15	Al Okhdood	6	−4	6
16	Al Jandal	6	0	5
17	Al Bukayriyah	6	−7	2
18	Al Jeel	6	−7	2