Al Najma v Al Zulfi prediction · Division 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al NajmaDrawAl Zulfi

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:05

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Najma 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Najma are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Najma 42%, draw 29%, Al Zulfi 30%. Over 2.5 goals 45%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Al Najma v Al ZulfiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Najma win42%

Draw29%

Al Zulfi win30%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 15:05

RoundMatchday 9

VenueKing Abdullah Sports City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Najma

Al Zulfi

8Days since last match9

Last match: 20 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

Last match: 19 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al Zulfi	8	+8	14
4	Al Najma	8	+5	13

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al najma winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Al Najma a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.1, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Najma v Al Zulfi~~1.37 – 1.11

~~Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 1 Sept~~W2 D4 L0 · W2 D4 L0

~~Table places · points 13 v 14~~4 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Najma win	42%	–	–
Draw	29%	–	–
Al Zulfi win	30%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	45%	–	–
Both teams to score	50%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	24%	–	–
Al Najma or draw	70%	–	–
Al Najma clean sheet	34%	–	–
Al Zulfi clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.5%

0123450 9.9 8.4 5.2 1 10.5 13.5 6.9 2.6 2 7.8 8.4 4.6 3 3.6 3.9 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Najma down, Al Zulfi across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,677 Division 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.2% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2024/25 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Najma at home: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Al Zulfi away: 1.33 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.37 goals for Al Najma, 1.11 for Al Zulfi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2024/25

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALN 1–1 ALZ · ALZ 2–0 ALN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 1 Sept

AL NAJMA

DDDDWW1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 1–1 · 3–0 · 4–2

AL ZULFI

DDDWWD1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 4–0 · 2–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	7	+13	19
2	Al Jabalain	8	+3	15
3	Al Zulfi	8	+8	14
4	Al Najma	8	+5	13
5	Al Wehda Club	8	+7	12
6	Al-Adalah	8	+2	12
7	Damac	8	+1	12
8	Al Anwar	8	+2	11
9	Al Saqer	8	+1	10
10	Al-Raed	8	−4	10
11	Al Taee	8	−8	10
12	Al Orubah	7	0	8
13	Jeddah Club	8	−3	8
14	Al Okhdood	8	−6	7
15	Al Jandal	7	0	6
16	Hajer	7	−5	6
17	Al Bukayriyah	8	−9	3
18	Al Jeel	6	−7	2