Al Jandal v Al Okhdood prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:16

Al Jandal 1–1 Al Okhdood AL OKHDOOD WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al Okhdood win~~43%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.841

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.807

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 41 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Okhdood win at 43%.
1′KICK-OFF Al Jandal v Al Okhdood
2′Much as we predicted: Al Okhdood was 43% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 32–24–44
9′⚽ GOAL · 9' Al Jandal 0–1 Al Okhdood · Z. Gano
10′Al Okhdood ahead on 9′ through Z. Gano. 0–1. 0–1 · 13–18–68
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Al Okhdood win: 43% at kick-off, 68% now
11′We published Al Okhdood at 43%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 13–18–69
20′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Rui Pedro · Al Okhdood
25′We published Al Okhdood at 43%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 11–19–70
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 0–1 · 11–19–70
36′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Fabinho · Al Jandal
39′🟨 YELLOW · 36' J. Silva · Al Jandal
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Al Jandal 1–1 Al Okhdood · M. Mansour
41′M. Mansour scores for Al Jandal on 40′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 29–34–37
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Al Okhdood win: 43% at kick-off, 37% now
43′GOAL DISALLOWED · 40' M. Mansour · Al Jandal
43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' Al Okhdood win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
45′🟨 YELLOW · 48' M. Haddad · Al Jandal
45′HALF-TIME Al Jandal 0–1 Al Okhdood
46′SECOND HALF Al Jandal 0–1 Al Okhdood
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Al Okhdood win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Al Jandal 1–1 Al Okhdood · M. Mansour
50′M. Mansour scores for Al Jandal on 49′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 27–39–34
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 50' Al Okhdood win: 43% at kick-off, 34% now
50′THE CALL SWINGS · 50' Draw is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Al Okhdood win 34%)
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 53' Al Okhdood win: 43% at kick-off, 33% now
57′A red card for Al Okhdood on 56′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 25–44–31
57′🟥 RED CARD · 56' M. Abu Abd · Al Okhdood
58′We said Al Okhdood at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 31%. 1–1 · 25–44–31
58′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al Okhdood · On: A. Majrashi · Off: Rui Pedro
62′We said Al Okhdood at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 23–48–29
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' T. Peyre · Al Jandal
71′We said Al Okhdood at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 23%. 1–1 · 19–58–23
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al Okhdood · On: B. Sangare · Off: K. Al Lazam
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Al Okhdood win: 43% at kick-off, 23% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al Jandal · On: b. S. Al Fallatah Y. · Off: N. Al Sehimai
76′We said Al Okhdood at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 19%. 1–1 · 15–66–19
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Okhdood · On: N. Al Bishi · Off: Z. Gano
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Jandal · On: F. Al Juhani · Off: J. Silva
81′We said Al Okhdood at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 1–1 · 11–75–13
81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Al Okhdood win: 43% at kick-off, 13% now
85′We said Al Okhdood at 43%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 7–84–9
90′🟨 YELLOW · 90' A. Al-Makrami · Al Okhdood
90′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Rui Pedro · Al Okhdood
90′🟨 YELLOW · 36' J. Silva · Al Jandal
90′GOAL DISALLOWED · 40' M. Mansour · Al Jandal
90′🟨 YELLOW · 48' M. Haddad · Al Jandal
90′🟥 RED CARD · 56' M. Abu Abd · Al Okhdood
90′SUBSTITUTION · 58' Al Okhdood · On: A. Majrashi · Off: Rui Pedro
90′🟨 YELLOW · 62' T. Peyre · Al Jandal
90′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al Okhdood · On: B. Sangare · Off: K. Al Lazam
90′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Al Jandal · On: b. S. Al Fallatah Y. · Off: N. Al Sehimai
90′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Okhdood · On: N. Al Bishi · Off: Z. Gano
90′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Al Jandal · On: F. Al Juhani · Off: J. Silva
90′SUBSTITUTION · 98' Al Jandal · On: O. Al Rashed · Off: M. Mansour
FTFULL TIME Al Jandal 1–1 Al Okhdood
FTAl Jandal 1–1 Al Okhdood · Al Okhdood win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Al Jandal v Al OkhdoodBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

Al Jandal win32%

Draw25%

Al Okhdood win43%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 16:30

VenueAl-Jouf University Stadium

Line-ups

Al Jandal

Al Okhdood

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al Jandal

Al Okhdood

24Days since last match6

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
15	Al Okhdood	6	-4	6
16	Al Jandal	6	0	5

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Jandal

Formation not confirmed

1 A. Al Shammari

32 M. Bakheet

23 T. Peyre

4 M. Haddad

24 M. Al Shammari

79 C. Loufilou

94 N. Al Sehimai

17 M. Mansour

10 H. Fadiga

19 J. Silva

99 Fabinho

Coach · Ziyad Al-Afar

Substitutes

34 · M. Al Barih

8 · A. Majrashi

5 · J. Al Dosari

33 · b. S. Al Fallatah Y.

2 · A. Al Ruwaili

11 · S. M. Al Harthi

9 · F. Al Juhani

20 · O. Al Rashed

90 · A. Al Abdullah

Al Okhdood

Formation not confirmed

1 R. Al Najjar

21 M. Abu Abd

73 H. Al Harbi

5 Alex Nascimento

13 A. Al-Makrami

19 S. Salem

4 A. Hazazi

37 K. Al Lazam

10 Rui Pedro

7 Agi

93 Z. Gano

Coach · Fabiano Flora

Substitutes

28 · A. Al Amri

92 · S. Al Qarni

24 · Y. Al Zaraia

23 · M. Talal Al Hasaniyyah

15 · N. Al Bishi

11 · M. Al Jahif

96 · A. Majrashi

9 · B. Sangare

29 · S. Al Qareh

Our number · al okhdood winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 14 Oct 16:02 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Al Okhdood a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Jandal v Al Okhdood~~1.38 – 1.66

~~Last six in Division 1~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 5 v 6~~16 v 15

~~The market · Al Okhdood win~~42% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al okhdood win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Jandal win	32%	31%	+1
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Al Okhdood win	43%	42%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	58%	51%	+6
Both teams to score	60%	56%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	80%	74%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	36%	30%	+6
Al Jandal or draw	57%	58%	−1
Al Jandal clean sheet	20%	–	–
Al Okhdood clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.3 7.3 6.5 3.6 1 6.0 11.6 8.5 4.7 2.1 2 4.7 7.2 5.8 3.2 3 2.2 3.4 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Jandal down, Al Okhdood across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,667 Division 1 matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 37.3% of games this season, across 59 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting between these two, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Al Jandal at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Al Okhdood away: 1.33 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.38 goals for Al Jandal, 1.66 for Al Okhdood. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No meetings between these two in Division 1 since 2021. Cup ties and meetings in other competitions are not counted here.

Form · last six in Division 1

AL JANDAL

LDLWLD1–2 · 1–1 · 1–2 · 4–1 · 0–1 · 2–2

AL OKHDOOD

WDDDLL2–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 2–2 · 2–4 · 1–5

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	6	13	18
2	Al Zulfi	7	8	13
3	Al Jabalain	7	2	12
4	Al Wehda Club	7	7	11
5	Al Najma	7	3	10
6	Al Anwar	7	2	10
7	Al Taee	7	-5	10
8	Al-Adalah	7	0	9
9	Damac	7	-2	9
10	Jeddah Club	6	-1	8
11	Al Orubah	6	0	7
12	Al Saqer	7	-1	7
13	Al-Raed	6	-3	7
14	Hajer	6	-3	6
15	Al Okhdood	6	-4	6
16	Al Jandal	6	0	5
17	Al Jeel	6	-7	2
18	Al Bukayriyah	7	-9	2