Al Jabalain v Al-Raed prediction · Division 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al JabalainDrawAl-Raed

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:05

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Jabalain 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Jabalain are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Jabalain 43%, draw 27%, Al-Raed 29%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Al Jabalain v Al-RaedBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Jabalain win43%

Draw27%

Al-Raed win29%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 15:05

RoundMatchday 9

VenuePrince Abdul Aziz bin Masaad Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Jabalain

Al-Raed

7Days since last match9

Last match: 21 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

Last match: 19 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Al Jabalain	8	+3	15
10	Al-Raed	8	−4	10

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al jabalain winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

43% The market–

Us43%

We make Al Jabalain a 43% chance to win. The model expects 1.5–1.2, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Jabalain v Al-Raed~~1.51 – 1.20

~~Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 1 Sept~~W3 D3 L0 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 15 v 10~~2 v 10

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Jabalain win	43%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Al-Raed win	29%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	29%	–	–
Al Jabalain or draw	71%	–	–
Al Jabalain clean sheet	31%	–	–
Al-Raed clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 8.0 7.1 4.8 1 9.2 12.8 7.1 2.9 2 7.6 8.8 5.3 2.1 3 3.9 4.5 2.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Jabalain down, Al-Raed across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,677 Division 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.2% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Jabalain at home: 1.67 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Al-Raed away: 0.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.51 goals for Al Jabalain, 1.20 for Al-Raed. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~3 of 3

~~Last meetings~~ALR 3–1 ALJ · ALJ 2–1 ALR · ALR 1–1 ALJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 1 Sept

AL JABALAIN

DDWDWW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 0–0 · 3–1 · 1–0

AL-RAED

LWDLWL0–2 · 3–0 · 1–1 · 0–4 · 1–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	7	+13	19
2	Al Jabalain	8	+3	15
3	Al Zulfi	8	+8	14
4	Al Najma	8	+5	13
5	Al Wehda Club	8	+7	12
6	Al-Adalah	8	+2	12
7	Damac	8	+1	12
8	Al Anwar	8	+2	11
9	Al Saqer	8	+1	10
10	Al-Raed	8	−4	10
11	Al Taee	8	−8	10
12	Al Orubah	7	0	8
13	Jeddah Club	8	−3	8
14	Al Okhdood	8	−6	7
15	Al Jandal	7	0	6
16	Hajer	7	−5	6
17	Al Bukayriyah	8	−9	3
18	Al Jeel	6	−7	2