Al Bukayriyah v Hajer prediction · Division 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al BukayriyahDrawHajer

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Al Bukayriyah 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al Bukayriyah are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al Bukayriyah 42%, draw 30%, Hajer 28%. Over 2.5 goals 40%, both teams to score 46%.

The AI’s read on Al Bukayriyah v HajerBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 20 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al Bukayriyah win42%

Draw30%

Hajer win28%

Kick-offMON 26 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenueAl Bukayriyah Club Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al Bukayriyah

Hajer

6Days since last match6

Last match: 20 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
16	Hajer	7	−5	6
17	Al Bukayriyah	8	−9	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al bukayriyah winFirst published 20 Oct 00:01 · updated 21 Oct 00:14 · locked at kick-off

42% The market–

Us42%

We make Al Bukayriyah a 42% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al Bukayriyah v Hajer~~1.29 – 0.99

~~Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D1 L5 · W1 D3 L2

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~17 v 16

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Al Bukayriyah win

Published at 40%, 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Bukayriyah win	42%	–	–
Draw	30%	–	–
Hajer win	28%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	40%	–	–
Both teams to score	46%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	67%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	20%	–	–
Al Bukayriyah or draw	72%	–	–
Al Bukayriyah clean sheet	38%	–	–
Hajer clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 13.7%

0123450 11.7 9.1 5.1 1 12.1 13.7 6.3 2.2 2 8.4 8.1 4.0 3 3.7 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Bukayriyah down, Hajer across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,677 Division 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.2% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Bukayriyah at home: 0.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Hajer away: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.29 goals for Al Bukayriyah, 0.99 for Hajer. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~HAJ 0–1 ALB · ALB 2–2 HAJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 28 Aug

AL BUKAYRIYAH

LLLLLD0–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 0–2 · 1–1

HAJER

WDDLDL3–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 2–4

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	7	+13	19
2	Al Jabalain	8	+3	15
3	Al Zulfi	8	+8	14
4	Al Najma	8	+5	13
5	Al Wehda Club	8	+7	12
6	Al-Adalah	8	+2	12
7	Damac	8	+1	12
8	Al Anwar	8	+2	11
9	Al Saqer	8	+1	10
10	Al-Raed	8	−4	10
11	Al Taee	8	−8	10
12	Al Orubah	7	0	8
13	Jeddah Club	8	−3	8
14	Al Okhdood	8	−6	7
15	Al Jandal	7	0	6
16	Hajer	7	−5	6
17	Al Bukayriyah	8	−9	3
18	Al Jeel	6	−7	2