Al Bukayriyah v Al Zulfi prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 13 Oct 19:02

Al Bukayriyah 0–2 Al Zulfi AL ZULFI WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Al Zulfi win~~39%

~~The market said~~42%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.552

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.496

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Zulfi win at 39%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Al Zulfi 39% before kick-off, 40% now. 0–0 · 30–30–40
1′KICK-OFF Al Bukayriyah v Al Zulfi
13′🟥 RED CARD · 13' Al Bukayriyah
13′🟥 RED CARD · 13' H. Asseri · Al Bukayriyah
15′Al Bukayriyah are down to ten from 13′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 29–33–38
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' A. A. Al Nakhli · Al Zulfi
30′⚽ GOAL · 30' Al Bukayriyah 0–0 Al Zulfi · B. Malango
31′30′ and it is 0–1: B. Malango on the scoresheet for Al Zulfi. 0–1 · 7–20–73
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Al Bukayriyah 0–1 Al Zulfi · B. Malango
31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' Al Zulfi win: 39% at kick-off, 73% now
33′We said Al Zulfi at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 73%. 0–1 · 7–20–73
36′The goal count is tracking the 2.1 we expected. 0–1 · 7–20–74
37′SUBSTITUTION · 38' Al Bukayriyah · On: R. Sharahili · Off: M. Al Mahmoudi Corrected
42′We said Al Zulfi at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 48' Al Zulfi win: 39% at kick-off, 76% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Al Zulfi win: 39% at kick-off, 79% now
59′We said Al Zulfi at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
62′Al Zulfi ahead on 62′ through M. Al Zahrani. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–97
62′⚽ GOAL · 62' Al Bukayriyah 0–2 Al Zulfi · M. Al Zahrani
62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Al Zulfi win: 39% at kick-off, 97% now
64′Al Zulfi ahead on 60′ through M. Al Zahrani. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–2–98
64′We said Al Zulfi at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–2–98
64′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Zulfi · On: B. Fallatah · Off: A. A. Al Nakhli
64′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al Bukayriyah · On: I. Al Sunaytan · Off: H. Al Zabdani
65′⚽ GOAL · 64' Al Bukayriyah 1–2 Al Zulfi · S. Al Muwallad
66′S. Al Muwallad scores for Al Bukayriyah on 64′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
66′3 goals already, more than the 2.1 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–15–83
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Al Zulfi win: 39% at kick-off, 83% now
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Al Zulfi win: 39% at kick-off, 98% now
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 71' Al Zulfi win: 39% at kick-off, 99% now
72′🟨 YELLOW · 72' B. Fallatah · Al Zulfi
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Al Bukayriyah · On: M. Al Harbi · Off: S. Al Muwallad
76′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Al Zulfi · On: Z. Al Waleed · Off: B. Malango
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al Zulfi · On: N. Bouamer · Off: D. Bregu
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Al Bukayriyah · On: S. Al Hawsawi · Off: M. Abuyabes Corrected
82′We said Al Zulfi at 39% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Al Bukayriyah · On: N. Kaabi · Off: I. Success
90′0–2 at the end. Our 39% on Al Zulfi comes in. 0–2 · 0–0–100
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Al Zulfi · On: M. Semreen · Off: D. Diallo
91′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Al Zulfi · On: A. Al Anzy · Off: Ricardo Ryller
FTFULL TIME Al Bukayriyah 0–2 Al Zulfi
FTAl Bukayriyah 0–2 Al Zulfi · Al Zulfi win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Our analyst’s one-line verdict on how this match goes.

What decides it

1

The reason that decides itThe fact behind it, in one line.

– –

2

Where the chances come fromThe figure that shows it, in one line.

– –

3

What could tip the balanceWhat could change it, in one line.

– –

The AI’s read on this match

The verdict, the three reasons that decide it, what would change it and the players to watch — checked live during the game, with a review after full time. Included with a pass.

See the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 13 Oct 15:46 · locked at kick-off

Al Bukayriyah win29%

Draw31%

Al Zulfi win39%

Kick-offTUE 13 OCT · 16:15

VenueAl Bukayriyah Club Stadium

Line-ups

Al Bukayriyah

Al Zulfi

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al Bukayriyah

Al Zulfi

25Days since last match24

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Al Zulfi	6	+6	10
17	Al Bukayriyah	6	−7	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Al Bukayriyah

Formation not confirmed

17 M. Jawhar

22 H. Al Zabdani

19 F. Pinero

14 M. Abuyabes

36 H. Asseri

7 M. Al Mahmoudi

6 A. Al Barakah

99 B. Kuwas

8 H. Faik

11 S. Al Muwallad

90 I. Success

Coach · Thomas Brdaric

Substitutes

45 · M. Akjah

66 · R. Sharahili

4 · B. Baajaj

23 · M. Al Harbi

13 · I. Al Sunaytan

10 · N. Kaabi

38 · Y. Jathemi

15 · A. M. Al Bishi

2 · S. Al Hawsawi

Al Zulfi

Formation not confirmed

22 S. Al Saleh

27 A. Daqarshawi

17 A. Abu Shaheen

67 M. Baker

4 A. A. Al Nakhli

25 Ricardo Ryller

21 D. Diallo

15 M. Al Zahrani

34 A. Al Shereid

10 D. Bregu

28 B. Malango

Coach · Habib Ben Romdhane

Substitutes

44 · A. Al Mushawah

66 · B. Fallatah

5 · S. Al Manhali

87 · S. Al Tumbukti

70 · A. Al Anzy

11 · M. Semreen

24 · T. Al Jumah

91 · N. Bouamer

18 · Z. Al Waleed

Our number · al zulfi winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 13 Oct 15:46 · locked at kick-off

39% The market42%

Us39%

~~Market~~42%

We make Al Zulfi a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al zulfi win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al Bukayriyah win	29%	28%	+1
Draw	31%	29%	+2
Al Zulfi win	39%	42%	−3
Over 2.5 goals	36%	43%	−7
Both teams to score	43%	49%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	64%	67%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	17%	23%	−6
Al Bukayriyah or draw	61%	58%	+3
Al Bukayriyah clean sheet	31%	–	–
Al Zulfi clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 14.1%

0123450 13.1 12.7 8.0 3.2 1 10.4 14.1 7.6 3.0 2 5.6 6.4 3.7 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al Bukayriyah down, Al Zulfi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,665 Division 1 matches up to 13 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.8% of games this season, across 57 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al Bukayriyah at home: 0.50 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al Zulfi away: 1.17 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Al Bukayriyah, 1.18 for Al Zulfi. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~3 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ALB 1–3 ALZ · ALZ 1–2 ALB · ALZ 1–1 ALB · ALB 1–0 ALZ

Form · last six in Division 1

AL BUKAYRIYAH

DDLLLL0–0 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 1–4 · 1–2 · 1–3

AL ZULFI

WDDDDW2–0 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 4–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	6	+13	18
2	Al Wehda Club	7	+7	11
3	Al Zulfi	6	+6	10
4	Al Najma	7	+3	10
5	Al Anwar	7	+2	10
6	Al Taee	7	−5	10
7	Al-Adalah	7	0	9
8	Al Jabalain	6	0	9
9	Damac	7	−2	9
10	Jeddah Club	6	−1	8
11	Al Saqer	6	+1	7
12	Al Orubah	6	0	7
13	Al-Raed	6	−3	7
14	Hajer	6	−3	6
15	Al Okhdood	6	−4	6
16	Al Jandal	6	0	5
17	Al Bukayriyah	6	−7	2
18	Al Jeel	6	−7	2