Al-Adalah v Al Jeel prediction · Division 1

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Al-AdalahDrawAl Jeel

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Al-Adalah 49%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Al-Adalah are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Al-Adalah 49%, draw 27%, Al Jeel 23%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Al-Adalah v Al JeelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Al-Adalah win49%

Draw27%

Al Jeel win23%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 9

VenuePrince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Al-Adalah

Al Jeel

7Days since last match37

Last match: 20 Oct · the Saudi Division 1

Last match: 20 Sept · the Saudi Division 1

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
6	Al-Adalah	8	+2	12
18	Al Jeel	6	−7	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · al-adalah winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

49% The market–

Us49%

We make Al-Adalah a 49% chance to win. The model expects 1.6–1.0, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Al-Adalah v Al Jeel~~1.55 – 0.97

~~Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 21 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 12 v 2~~6 v 18

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Adalah win	49%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Al Jeel win	23%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	48%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	72%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Al-Adalah or draw	77%	–	–
Al-Adalah clean sheet	39%	–	–
Al Jeel clean sheet	22%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.6%

0123450 9.6 6.9 3.9 1 11.5 12.6 5.7 2 9.5 8.7 4.3 3 5.0 4.6 2.2 4 2.1 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Adalah down, Al Jeel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,677 Division 1 matches up to 21 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 36.2% of games this season, across 69 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 0 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Adalah at home: 1.67 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al Jeel away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.55 goals for Al-Adalah, 0.97 for Al Jeel. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~0 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALJ 0–2 ALA · ALA 1–1 ALJ

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Division 1 this season · since 21 Aug

AL-ADALAH

WDWLDW1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 3–1

AL JEEL

LLDLLD0–2 · 0–1 · 0–0 · 0–3 · 0–1 · 0–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	7	+13	19
2	Al Jabalain	8	+3	15
3	Al Zulfi	8	+8	14
4	Al Najma	8	+5	13
5	Al Wehda Club	8	+7	12
6	Al-Adalah	8	+2	12
7	Damac	8	+1	12
8	Al Anwar	8	+2	11
9	Al Saqer	8	+1	10
10	Al-Raed	8	−4	10
11	Al Taee	8	−8	10
12	Al Orubah	7	0	8
13	Jeddah Club	8	−3	8
14	Al Okhdood	8	−6	7
15	Al Jandal	7	0	6
16	Hajer	7	−5	6
17	Al Bukayriyah	8	−9	3
18	Al Jeel	6	−7	2