Al-Adalah v Al Anwar prediction · Division 1

Full timeGraded 12 Oct 18:49

Al-Adalah 1–1 Al Anwar AL ANWAR WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Al Anwar win~~41%

~~The market said~~40%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.846

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.783

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Al Anwar win at 41%.
1′Much as we predicted: Al Anwar was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 34–24–42
1′KICK-OFF Al-Adalah v Al Anwar
6′Much as we predicted: Al Anwar was 41% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 34–25–42
43′⚽ GOAL · 43' Al-Adalah 1–0 Al Anwar · J. Al Bashah
45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' R. Correia · Al-Adalah
45′HALF-TIME Al-Adalah 0–0 Al Anwar
46′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al-Adalah · On: A. Al Zaqaan · Off: J. Al Bashah
46′SECOND HALF Al-Adalah 0–0 Al Anwar
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' A. Bahusayn · Al Anwar
56′🟨 YELLOW · 55' M. Al Ghamdi · Al Anwar
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' K. Gabriel · Al Anwar
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al Anwar · On: T. Al Mutairi · Off: I. K. Eissa
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al Anwar · On: M. Al Harthi · Off: A. Bahusayn
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Adalah · On: R. Al Ibrahim · Off: H. Al Nattar
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Adalah · On: S. Faqihi · Off: K. Al Muziel
77′🟨 YELLOW · 47' R. Correia · Al-Adalah
77′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Al-Adalah · On: A. Al Zaqaan · Off: J. Al Bashah
77′🟨 YELLOW · 53' A. Bahusayn · Al Anwar
77′🟨 YELLOW · 55' M. Al Ghamdi · Al Anwar
77′🟨 YELLOW · 58' K. Gabriel · Al Anwar
77′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al Anwar · On: T. Al Mutairi · Off: I. K. Eissa
77′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Al Anwar · On: M. Al Harthi · Off: A. Bahusayn
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Adalah · On: R. Al Ibrahim · Off: H. Al Nattar
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Al-Adalah · On: S. Faqihi · Off: K. Al Muziel
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al Anwar · On: A. Al Samtai · Off: K. Kaabi
78′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Al Anwar · On: R. Al Salem · Off: Bruno Bezerra
83′⚽ GOAL · 83' Al-Adalah 0–1 Al Anwar · C. Derradji
85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' R. Bensayah · Al Anwar
90′⚽ GOAL · 87' Al-Adalah 1–1 Al Anwar · A. Al Muwallad (assist D. Tijanic)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Al Anwar · On: M. Al Zahrani · Off: M. Sharrahi
90′SUBSTITUTION · 96' Al-Adalah · On: S. Al Omaish · Off: M. Al Saeed
FTFULL TIME Al-Adalah 1–1 Al Anwar
FTAl-Adalah 1–1 Al Anwar · Al Anwar win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published 12 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

Al-Adalah win34%

Draw25%

Al Anwar win41%

Kick-offMON 12 OCT · 15:55

VenuePrince Abdullah bin Jalawi Stadium

Line-ups

Al-Adalah

Al Anwar

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Al-Adalah

Al Anwar

22Days since last match23

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Al Anwar	6	+2	9
8	Al-Adalah	6	0	8

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Line-ups, squads and player statistics aren’t currently available for this competition.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Al-Adalah

Formation not confirmed

17 M. Al Dawsari

19 A. Al Rashidi

70 A. Al Muwallad

4 A. Teixeira

89 K. Al Muziel

18 M. Al Saeed

77 J. Al Bashah

16 K. Al Hamdhi

96 H. Al Nattar

80 E. Avornyo

43 D. Tijanic

Coach · Rodolfo Correia

Substitutes

13 · M. Al Biladi

14 · S. Faqihi

27 · S. Al Omaish

26 · M. Al Hejji

24 · A. Al Khalifa

7 · R. Al Ibrahim

6 · A. Al Abbad

90 · N. Al Hassawi

95 · A. Al Zaqaan

Al Anwar

Formation not confirmed

1 K. Shrahili

43 S. Grzan

19 C. Derradji

16 M. Al Ghamdi

66 M. Sharrahi

8 K. Gabriel

99 R. Bensayah

77 K. Kaabi

29 A. Bahusayn

7 I. K. Eissa

9 Bruno Bezerra

Coach · Essa Al Mahyani

Substitutes

33 · N. Al Dous

87 · A. Al Rashidi

2 · M. Al Zahrani

15 · M. Al Hazmi

6 · A. Al Samtai

24 · M. Al Harthi

88 · T. Al Mutairi

98 · R. Al Salem

17 · A. Al Qahtani

Our number · al anwar winFirst published 9 Oct 06:15 · updated 12 Oct 15:32 · locked at kick-off

41% The market40%

Us41%

~~Market~~40%

We make Al Anwar a 41% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · al anwar win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Al-Adalah win	34%	32%	+1
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Al Anwar win	41%	40%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	60%	50%	+10
Both teams to score	62%	55%	+8
Over 1.5 goals	82%	73%	+9
Over 3.5 goals	38%	29%	+9
Al-Adalah or draw	59%	60%	−2
Al-Adalah clean sheet	20%	–	–
Al Anwar clean sheet	23%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.3%

0123450 5.4 6.5 6.0 3.3 1 5.7 11.3 8.6 4.8 2.1 2 4.8 7.7 6.3 3.5 3 2.4 3.8 3.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Al-Adalah down, Al Anwar across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,662 Division 1 matches up to 12 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Division 1 matches have gone over 2.5 in 35.2% of games this season, across 54 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Al-Adalah at home: 1.83 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Al Anwar away: 1.17 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.48 goals for Al-Adalah, 1.67 for Al Anwar. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 2

~~Both scored~~2 of 2

~~Last meetings~~ALA 2–1 ALA · ALA 4–1 ALA

Form · last six in Division 1

AL-ADALAH

DLWDWL1–1 · 3–4 · 1–0 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–3

AL ANWAR

DLDWWD0–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Al Ula	6	+13	18
2	Al Zulfi	6	+6	10
3	Al Taee	6	0	10
4	Al Anwar	6	+2	9
5	Damac	6	+1	9
6	Al Jabalain	6	0	9
7	Al Wehda Club	6	+2	8
8	Al-Adalah	6	0	8
9	Jeddah Club	6	−1	8
10	Al Saqer	6	+1	7
11	Al Najma	6	0	7
12	Al Orubah	6	0	7
13	Al-Raed	6	−3	7
14	Hajer	6	−3	6
15	Al Okhdood	6	−4	6
16	Al Jandal	6	0	5
17	Al Bukayriyah	6	−7	2
18	Al Jeel	6	−7	2