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Model 1.2

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Virtus v Murata

Virtus
19:45Upcoming
Murata

Coppa Titano · WED 28 OCT

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

VirtusDrawMurata
Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45
Before kick-off · Match result · Virtus 86%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Virtus are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Virtus 86%, draw 10%, Murata 4%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Virtus v MurataBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Virtus win86%
Draw10%
Murata win4%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Virtus

Murata

5Days since last match4

Last match: 23 Oct · Campionato

Last match: 24 Oct · Campionato

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · virtus winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · updated 25 Oct 00:30 · locked at kick-off
86% The market–
Us86%

We make Virtus an 86% chance to win. The model expects 3.6–0.6, and 3–0 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Virtus v Murata3.57 – 0.55
Form · Coppa Titano this season · since 9 SeptW1 D0 L0 · W0 D0 L1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
85%90% 22 OCT 00:0125 OCT 01:06
Our probability · Virtus win

Published at 87%, 86% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Virtus win86%––
Draw10%––
Murata win4%––
Over 2.5 goals74%––
Both teams to score40%––
Over 1.5 goals89%––
Over 3.5 goals55%––
Virtus or draw96%––
Virtus clean sheet59%––
Murata clean sheet5%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 3–0 at 11.0%
0123450 2.9 1 6.7 4.6 2 10.5 6.0 3 11.0 5.9 4 9.2 4.7 5 6.8 3.2
under 2% 5% 12%+Virtus down, Murata across0–5 goals a side shown (82.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.60
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsMUR 0–3 VIR · VIR 4–1 MUR · MUR 0–2 VIR · MUR 0–1 VIR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Coppa Titano this season · since 9 Sept

VIRTUS

W3–0

MURATA

L0–3