Folgore v Libertas prediction · Coppa Titano

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

FolgoreDrawLibertas

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Folgore 68%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Folgore are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Folgore 68%, draw 19%, Libertas 14%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Folgore v LibertasBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Folgore win68%

Draw19%

Libertas win14%

Kick-offWED 28 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Folgore

Libertas

19Days since last match19

Last match: 9 Oct · Campionato

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · folgore winFirst published 22 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

68% The market–

Us68%

We make Folgore a 68% chance to win. The model expects 2.5–1.0, and 2–0 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Folgore v Libertas~~2.45 – 0.96

~~Form · Coppa Titano this season · since 9 Sept~~W1 D0 L0 · W0 D0 L1

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Folgore win	68%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Libertas win	14%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	55%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	44%	–	–
Folgore or draw	86%	–	–
Folgore clean sheet	39%	–	–
Libertas clean sheet	10%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 9.6%

0123450 4.7 3.0 1 7.9 8.6 3.8 2 9.6 8.9 4.3 3 7.6 6.9 3.3 4 4.7 4.2 2.0 5 2.5 2.2

under 2% 5% 12%+Folgore down, Libertas across0–5 goals a side shown (94.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 Campionato matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.2% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Folgore at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). Libertas away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.45 goals for Folgore, 0.96 for Libertas. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LIB 0–2 FOL · LIB 2–4 FOL · FOL 6–1 LIB · FOL 3–0 LIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Coppa Titano this season · since 9 Sept

FOLGORE

W2–0

LIBERTAS

L0–2

Folgore v Libertas

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Folgore

Libertas

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Coppa Titano this season · since 9 Sept