Cailungo v Pennarossa prediction · Coppa Titano

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

CailungoDrawPennarossa

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:45

Before kick-off · Match result · Cailungo 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Cailungo just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Cailungo 40%, draw 24%, Pennarossa 36%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 66%.

The AI’s read on Cailungo v PennarossaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 21 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Cailungo win40%

Draw24%

Pennarossa win36%

Kick-offTUE 27 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 16

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Cailungo

Pennarossa

3Days since last match4

Last match: 24 Oct · Campionato

Last match: 23 Oct · Campionato

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cailungo winFirst published 21 Oct 00:01 · updated 24 Oct 00:26 · locked at kick-off

40% The market–

Us40%

We make Cailungo a 40% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Cailungo v Pennarossa~~1.78 – 1.67

~~Form · Coppa Titano this season · since 9 Sept~~W0 D0 L1 · W1 D0 L0

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cailungo win

Published at 41%, 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Cailungo win	40%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
Pennarossa win	36%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	66%	–	–
Both teams to score	66%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	85%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	45%	–	–
Cailungo or draw	64%	–	–
Cailungo clean sheet	20%	–	–
Pennarossa clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.0%

0123450 4.5 4.9 4.6 2.6 1 5.2 10.0 7.5 4.2 2 5.0 7.8 6.3 3.6 3 3.0 4.6 3.7 2.1 4 2.2 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Cailungo down, Pennarossa across0–5 goals a side shown (97.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,270 Campionato matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.90 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Cailungo at home: 0.83 scored, 2.83 conceded a game (last 6). Pennarossa away: 1.17 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.78 goals for Cailungo, 1.67 for Pennarossa. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.90

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PEN 3–0 CAI · CAI 1–2 PEN · PEN 2–0 CAI · CAI 7–0 PEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Coppa Titano this season · since 9 Sept

CAILUNGO

L0–3

PENNAROSSA

W3–0

Cailungo v Pennarossa

The match pulse

AI match analysis

Pre-match prediction

Match timeline

Line-ups

Rest & schedule

Cailungo

Pennarossa

The game in numbers

Line-ups

Match statistics

Line-ups

What the number rests on

Head to head

Form · Coppa Titano this season · since 9 Sept