Virtus v San Marino Academy prediction · Campionato

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56

Virtus 5–0 San Marino Academy VIRTUS WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Virtus win~~82%

~~The market said~~84%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.054

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.040

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 21 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Virtus win at 82%.
1′Much as we predicted: Virtus was 82% before kick-off and our model makes it 83% now. 0–0 · 83–12–5
1′KICK-OFF Virtus v San Marino Academy
5′Much as we predicted: Virtus was 82% before kick-off and our model makes it 82% now. 0–0 · 82–13–5
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Virtus 1–0 San Marino Academy
24′Virtus find the net on 24′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' Virtus 2–0 San Marino Academy
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Virtus win: 82% at kick-off, 99% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Virtus win: 82% at kick-off, 82% now
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Virtus win: 82% at kick-off, 99% now
26′Virtus find the net on 24′. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' Virtus win: 82% at kick-off, 99% now
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 26' Virtus win: 82% at kick-off, 82% now
29′⚽ GOAL · 29' Virtus 3–0 San Marino Academy
42′41′ and it is 4–0: Virtus have scored. 4–0 · 100–0–0
42′⚽ GOAL · 41' Virtus 4–0 San Marino Academy
44′41′ and it is 4–0: Virtus have scored. 4–0 · 100–0–0
45′HALF-TIME Virtus 4–0 San Marino Academy
46′SECOND HALF Virtus 4–0 San Marino Academy
46′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 46' Virtus win: 82% at kick-off, 100% now
47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' Virtus win: 82% at kick-off, 100% now
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Virtus 5–0 San Marino Academy
57′⚽ GOAL · 10' Virtus 5–0 San Marino Academy · D. Madonna (assist I. Badalassi)
57′⚽ GOAL · 24' Virtus 5–0 San Marino Academy · A. Amati
57′⚽ GOAL · 29' Virtus 5–0 San Marino Academy · G. Piscitella (assist I. Buonocunto)
57′⚽ GOAL · 41' Virtus 5–0 San Marino Academy · K. Lisanti
57′⚽ GOAL · 50' Virtus 5–0 San Marino Academy · I. Buonocunto
FTFULL TIME Virtus 5–0 San Marino Academy
FTVirtus 5–0 San Marino Academy · Virtus win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Virtus win82%

Draw13%

San Marino Academy win5%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Virtus

San Marino Academy

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Virtus	4	+4	10
15	San Marino Academy	4	−4	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · virtus winPublished 11 Oct 14:09

82% The market84%

Us82%

~~Market~~84%

We make Virtus a 82% chance to win. The market has them at 84%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.7–0.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · virtus win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 84% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Virtus win	82%	84%	−2
Draw	13%	11%	+2
San Marino Academy win	5%	5%	0
Over 2.5 goals	61%	57%	+5
Both teams to score	36%	25%	+12
Over 1.5 goals	82%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	40%	36%	+4
Virtus or draw	95%	95%	0
Virtus clean sheet	61%	–	–
San Marino Academy clean sheet	8%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.4%

0123450 5.2 1 10.9 6.0 2 14.4 7.0 3 12.6 6.1 4 8.6 4.1 5 4.9 2.3

under 2% 5% 12%+Virtus down, San Marino Academy across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,263 Campionato matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 54.1% of games this season, across 37 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.17 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Virtus at home: 1.67 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). San Marino Academy away: 0.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.71 goals for Virtus, 0.51 for San Marino Academy. Most likely score 2–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.17

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~VIR 3–0 SAN · SAN 0–2 VIR · VIR 2–0 SAN · SAN 1–3 VIR

Form · last six in Campionato

VIRTUS

LWDWWW1–2 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 3–2

SAN MARINO ACADEMY

LDLDDL0–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Folgore	5	+13	15
2	Tre Fiori	5	+10	12
3	Tre Penne	4	+7	12
4	Virtus	4	+4	10
5	La Fiorita	5	+4	9
6	Libertas	5	0	8
7	Fiorentino	5	+5	7
8	Cosmos	4	+5	7
9	Domagnano	4	+1	6
10	Juvenes / Dogana	4	0	3
11	Cailungo	5	−2	3
12	San Giovanni	5	−7	3
13	Murata	5	−9	3
14	Pennarossa	5	−13	3
15	San Marino Academy	4	−4	2
16	Faetano	5	−14	2