San Marino Academy v Cosmos prediction · Campionato

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:58

San Marino Academy 0–4 Cosmos COSMOS WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Cosmos win~~66%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.185

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.179

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 10 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Cosmos win at 66%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Cosmos 66% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 11–24–65
1′KICK-OFF San Marino Academy v Cosmos
10′Cosmos score on 10′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 3–8–89
10′We said Cosmos at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 89%. 0–1 · 3–8–89
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' San Marino Academy 0–1 Cosmos
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' Cosmos win: 66% at kick-off, 89% now
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 2–9–89
44′Cosmos find the net on 44′. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–98
44′We said Cosmos at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 98%. 0–2 · 0–1–98
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' San Marino Academy 0–2 Cosmos
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Cosmos win: 66% at kick-off, 98% now
45′HALF-TIME San Marino Academy 0–2 Cosmos
46′A goal for Cosmos on 46′ — 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
46′We said Cosmos at 66% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
46′⚽ GOAL · 46' San Marino Academy 0–3 Cosmos
46′SECOND HALF San Marino Academy 0–3 Cosmos
47′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 0–3 · 0–0–100
52′Cosmos score on 52′ to make it 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' San Marino Academy 0–4 Cosmos
53′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
FTFULL TIME San Marino Academy 0–4 Cosmos
FTSan Marino Academy 0–4 Cosmos · Cosmos win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Cosmos are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: San Marino Academy 11%, draw 24%, Cosmos 66%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 36%.

The AI’s read on San Marino Academy v CosmosBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

San Marino Academy win11%

Draw24%

Cosmos win66%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:15

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

San Marino Academy

Cosmos

12Days since last match12

Last match: 11 Oct · Campionato

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Cosmos	5	+6	10
15	San Marino Academy	5	−9	2

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · cosmos winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

66% The market66%

Us66%

~~Market~~66%

We make Cosmos a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are level with the market. The model expects 0.6–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · San Marino Academy v Cosmos~~0.57 – 1.81

~~Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug~~W0 D2 L3 · W3 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 2 v 10~~15 v 5

~~The market · Cosmos win~~66% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Cosmos win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
San Marino Academy win	11%	13%	−2
Draw	24%	21%	+3
Cosmos win	66%	66%	0
Over 2.5 goals	42%	52%	−10
Both teams to score	36%	46%	−10
Over 1.5 goals	68%	74%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	22%	32%	−10
San Marino Academy or draw	34%	34%	0
San Marino Academy clean sheet	18%	–	–
Cosmos clean sheet	57%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 16.1%

0123450 11.1 16.1 14.6 8.8 4.2 1 4.6 9.7 8.0 4.9 2.3 2 2.7 2.4 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+San Marino Academy down, Cosmos across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,266 Campionato matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2023/24 in every competition we cover, 4.17 goals a meeting; 5 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

San Marino Academy at home: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Cosmos away: 0.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.57 goals for San Marino Academy, 1.81 for Cosmos. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023/24

~~Goals a meeting~~4.17

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 6

~~Both scored~~3 of 6

~~Last meetings~~COS 1–0 SAN · SAN 1–3 COS · COS 4–2 SAN · SAN 3–2 COS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug

SAN MARINO ACADEMY

LDDLL0–2 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–5

COSMOS

DLWWW1–1 · 0–2 · 6–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Folgore	5	+13	15
2	Tre Penne	5	+9	15
3	Virtus	5	+9	13
4	Tre Fiori	5	+10	12
5	Cosmos	5	+6	10
6	La Fiorita	5	+4	9
7	Libertas	5	0	8
8	Fiorentino	5	+5	7
9	Domagnano	5	−1	6
10	Juvenes / Dogana	5	−1	3
11	Cailungo	5	−2	3
12	San Giovanni	5	−7	3
13	Murata	5	−9	3
14	Pennarossa	5	−13	3
15	San Marino Academy	5	−9	2
16	Faetano	5	−14	2