Pennarossa v San Giovanni prediction · Campionato

Full timeGraded 23 Oct 22:58

Pennarossa 2–2 San Giovanni SAN GIOVANNI WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said San Giovanni win~~51%

~~The market said~~28%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.906

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.833

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said San Giovanni win at 51%.
1′Much as we predicted: San Giovanni was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 25–24–51
1′KICK-OFF Pennarossa v San Giovanni
10′A goal for San Giovanni on 10′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 10–15–75
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' Pennarossa 0–1 San Giovanni
10′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 10' San Giovanni win: 51% at kick-off, 75% now
11′We published San Giovanni at 51%. Our model now makes it 75%. 0–1 · 10–15–75
12′Pennarossa score on 12′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–26–49
12′⚽ GOAL · 12' Pennarossa 1–1 San Giovanni
12′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 12' San Giovanni win: 51% at kick-off, 49% now
23′11′: G. Guida on the scoresheet for Pennarossa, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–28–47
35′A red card for San Giovanni on 34′. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–1 · 24–31–44
35′🟥 RED CARD · 34' San Giovanni
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' San Giovanni win: 51% at kick-off, 41% now
45′HALF-TIME Pennarossa 1–1 San Giovanni
46′Goals are coming at about the 3.2 we expected. 1–1 · 23–36–41
46′SECOND HALF Pennarossa 1–1 San Giovanni
50′San Giovanni find the net on 49′. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–17–77
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Pennarossa 1–2 San Giovanni
50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' San Giovanni win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
52′San Giovanni ahead on 50′ through S. Osmani. 1–2. 1–2 · 5–17–78
61′We published San Giovanni at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–2 · 4–16–80
64′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 64' San Giovanni win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
73′We published San Giovanni at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
81′We published San Giovanni at 51%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–2 · 1–9–90
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 82' San Giovanni win: 51% at kick-off, 91% now
88′We published San Giovanni at 51%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
91′A goal for Pennarossa on 90′ — 2–2. 2–2 · 3–92–5
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Pennarossa 2–2 San Giovanni
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+1' San Giovanni win: 51% at kick-off, 5% now
91′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+1' Draw is now our likeliest result at 92% (was San Giovanni win 97%)
92′We said San Giovanni at 51%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–2 · 3–93–4
93′4 goals already, more than the 3.2 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 2–95–3
FTFULL TIME Pennarossa 2–2 San Giovanni
FTPennarossa 2–2 San Giovanni · San Giovanni win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

San Giovanni are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Pennarossa 25%, draw 24%, San Giovanni 51%. Over 2.5 goals 60%, both teams to score 60%.

The AI’s read on Pennarossa v San GiovanniBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

Pennarossa win25%

Draw24%

San Giovanni win51%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:15

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Pennarossa

San Giovanni

14Days since last match13

Last match: 9 Oct · Campionato

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	San Giovanni	5	−7	3
14	Pennarossa	5	−13	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · san giovanni winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off

51% The market28%

Us51%

~~Market~~28%

We make San Giovanni a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 28%. We are 23 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Pennarossa v San Giovanni~~1.27 – 1.90

~~Form · Campionato this season · since 29 Aug~~W1 D0 L4 · W1 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 3 v 3~~14 v 12

~~The market · San Giovanni win~~28% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · San Giovanni win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 28% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pennarossa win	25%	46%	−21
Draw	24%	26%	−2
San Giovanni win	51%	28%	+23
Over 2.5 goals	60%	56%	+4
Both teams to score	60%	60%	0
Over 1.5 goals	82%	79%	+3
Over 3.5 goals	39%	36%	+3
Pennarossa or draw	49%	72%	−23
Pennarossa clean sheet	16%	–	–
San Giovanni clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.7%

0123450 5.6 7.5 7.6 4.8 2.4 1 4.8 10.7 9.0 5.7 2.8 2 3.5 6.1 5.6 3.5 3 2.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pennarossa down, San Giovanni across0–5 goals a side shown (97.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,266 Campionato matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.5% of games this season, across 40 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.60 goals a meeting; 7 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pennarossa at home: 1.17 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). San Giovanni away: 0.67 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.27 goals for Pennarossa, 1.90 for San Giovanni. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.60

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SAN 3–0 PEN · PEN 2–1 SAN · SAN 2–2 PEN · PEN 0–5 SAN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato this season · since 29 Aug

PENNAROSSA

LLLWL2–5 · 1–4 · 1–6 · 3–1 · 1–5

SAN GIOVANNI

LLWLL2–3 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Folgore	5	+13	15
2	Tre Penne	5	+9	15
3	Virtus	5	+9	13
4	Tre Fiori	5	+10	12
5	Cosmos	5	+6	10
6	La Fiorita	5	+4	9
7	Libertas	5	0	8
8	Fiorentino	5	+5	7
9	Domagnano	5	−1	6
10	Juvenes / Dogana	5	−1	3
11	Cailungo	5	−2	3
12	San Giovanni	5	−7	3
13	Murata	5	−9	3
14	Pennarossa	5	−13	3
15	San Marino Academy	5	−9	2
16	Faetano	5	−14	2