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Pennarossa v Folgore

Pennarossa

1–5Full time

Folgore

Campionato · FRI 9 OCT

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 23:00

Pennarossa 1–5 Folgore FOLGORE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Folgore win~~75%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.092

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.197

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 12 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Folgore win at 75%.
1′KICK-OFF Pennarossa v Folgore
2′Little has changed for our model: Folgore 75% before kick-off, 78% now. 0–0 · 9–13–78
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Pennarossa 1–0 Folgore
17′Pennarossa find the net on 16′. 1–0. 1–0 · 26–23–51
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 17' Folgore win: 75% at kick-off, 51% now
22′We said Folgore at 75%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–0 · 28–24–49
26′⚽ GOAL · 26' Pennarossa 1–1 Folgore
28′A goal for Folgore on 26′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 11–19–70
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 28' Folgore win: 75% at kick-off, 70% now
31′⚽ GOAL · 31' Pennarossa 1–2 Folgore
42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Pennarossa 1–3 Folgore
44′⚽ GOAL · 44' Pennarossa 1–4 Folgore
45′HALF-TIME Pennarossa 1–4 Folgore
46′SECOND HALF Pennarossa 1–4 Folgore
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Pennarossa 1–5 Folgore
72′PENALTY MISSED · 71' Pennarossa
FTPennarossa 1–5 Folgore · Folgore win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Pennarossa win10%

Draw15%

Folgore win75%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 20:15

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · folgore winPublished 9 Oct 20:02

75% The market64%

Us75%

~~Market~~64%

We make Folgore a 75% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 11 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–3.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · folgore win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 69% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Pennarossa win	10%	15%	−5
Draw	15%	21%	−6
Folgore win	75%	64%	+11
Over 2.5 goals	72%	56%	+16
Both teams to score	57%	50%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	89%	77%	+12
Over 3.5 goals	53%	35%	+18
Pennarossa or draw	25%	36%	−11
Pennarossa clean sheet	7%	–	–
Folgore clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 8.7%

0123450 3.2 6.1 8.7 8.0 5.9 3.71 6.6 7.9 7.2 5.2 3.22 2.9 3.8 3.4 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Pennarossa down, Folgore across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,258 Campionato matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 50.0% of games this season, across 32 played.

Head to head

10 previous meetings, 4.00 goals a meeting; 8 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Pennarossa at home: 1.33 scored, 1.50 conceded a game (last 6). Folgore away: 2.83 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.94 goals for Pennarossa, 2.98 for Folgore. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

10 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~8 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PEN 2–3 FOL · FOL 3–0 PEN · FOL 2–2 PEN · PEN 0–3 FOL

Form · last six in Campionato

PENNAROSSA

DLLLLW1–1 · 0–3 · 2–5 · 1–4 · 1–6 · 3–1

FOLGORE

WLWWWW1–0 · 1–3 · 5–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Folgore	4	+9	12
2	Tre Penne	4	+7	12
3	Virtus	4	+4	10
4	Tre Fiori	4	+9	9
5	Cosmos	4	+5	7
6	Domagnano	4	+1	6
7	La Fiorita	4	+1	6
8	Libertas	4	−1	5
9	Fiorentino	4	−1	4
10	Juvenes / Dogana	4	0	3
11	Cailungo	4	−1	3
12	Murata	4	−6	3
13	San Giovanni	4	−6	3
14	Pennarossa	4	−9	3
15	San Marino Academy	4	−4	2
16	Faetano	4	−8	2