Murata v Domagnano prediction · Campionato

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33

Murata 2–2 Domagnano DOMAGNANO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Domagnano win~~70%

~~The market said~~71%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~1.188

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.190

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 18 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Domagnano win at 70%.
1′Much as we predicted: Domagnano was 70% before kick-off and our model makes it 70% now. 0–0 · 13–17–70
1′KICK-OFF Murata v Domagnano
14′Domagnano score on 14′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 4–9–86
14′We published Domagnano at 70%. Our model now makes it 86%. 0–1 · 4–9–86
14′⚽ GOAL · 14' Murata 0–1 Domagnano
14′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 14' Domagnano win: 70% at kick-off, 86% now
30′Goals are coming at about the 3.7 we expected. 0–1 · 4–10–86
45′PENALTY MISSED · 45+2' Murata
45′HALF-TIME Murata 0–1 Domagnano
46′SECOND HALF Murata 0–1 Domagnano
49′Murata find the net on 49′. 1–1. 1–1 · 14–31–55
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Murata 1–1 Domagnano
49′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 49' Domagnano win: 70% at kick-off, 55% now
50′We said Domagnano at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 1–1 · 14–32–54
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 56' Domagnano win: 70% at kick-off, 50% now
58′We said Domagnano at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 13–38–49
64′We said Domagnano at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 13–43–44
67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Domagnano win 44%)
68′A goal for Murata on 67′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 60–28–13
68′We said Domagnano at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 13%. 2–1 · 60–28–13
68′⚽ GOAL · 67' Murata 2–1 Domagnano
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 68' Domagnano win: 70% at kick-off, 13% now
68′THE CALL SWINGS · 68' Murata win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Draw 47%)
70′L. Hassler scores for Murata on 68′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 62–27–11
71′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 71' Domagnano win: 70% at kick-off, 10% now
72′A goal for Murata on 71′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 64–26–9
72′We said Domagnano at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 2–1 · 64–26–9
79′We said Domagnano at 70%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 75–21–4
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' Domagnano win: 70% at kick-off, under 1% now
94′Domagnano score on 90′ to make it 2–2. 2–2 · 1–96–3
94′4 goals already, more than the 3.7 we expected for the whole match. 2–2 · 1–96–3
94′⚽ GOAL · 90+4' Murata 2–2 Domagnano
94′THE CALL SWINGS · 90+4' Draw is now our likeliest result at 96% (was Murata win 96%)
FTFULL TIME Murata 2–2 Domagnano
FTMurata 2–2 Domagnano · Domagnano win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Domagnano are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Murata 13%, draw 17%, Domagnano 70%. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 55%.

The AI’s read on Murata v DomagnanoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Murata win13%

Draw17%

Domagnano win70%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Murata

Domagnano

15Days since last match13

Last match: 9 Oct · Campionato

Last match: 11 Oct · Campionato

0Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Domagnano	5	−1	6
14	Murata	5	−9	3

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · domagnano winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

70% The market71%

Us70%

~~Market~~71%

We make Domagnano a 70% chance to win. The market has them at 71%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–2.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Murata v Domagnano~~0.95 – 2.72

~~Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug~~W1 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L3

~~Table places · points 3 v 6~~14 v 9

~~The market · Domagnano win~~71% · ours 70%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Domagnano win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 71% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Murata win	13%	11%	+2
Draw	17%	18%	−1
Domagnano win	70%	71%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	68%	60%	+8
Both teams to score	55%	48%	+7
Over 1.5 goals	86%	82%	+4
Over 3.5 goals	48%	40%	+8
Murata or draw	30%	29%	+1
Murata clean sheet	10%	–	–
Domagnano clean sheet	40%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 8.8%

0123450 4.2 7.0 8.8 7.4 5.2 3.21 2.8 7.9 8.1 6.5 4.4 2.62 3.6 4.0 3.1 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Murata down, Domagnano across0–5 goals a side shown (90.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,270 Campionato matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.3% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.10 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Murata at home: 0.17 scored, 3.00 conceded a game (last 6). Domagnano away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Murata, 2.72 for Domagnano. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.10

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~3 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DOM 5–0 MUR · MUR 0–6 DOM · DOM 0–0 MUR · MUR 3–3 DOM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug

MURATA

LWLLL0–5 · 4–1 · 0–2 · 0–2 · 0–3

DOMAGNANO

WWLLL2–1 · 4–0 · 0–3 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus	6	+10	16
2	Tre Penne	6	+9	16
3	Folgore	5	+13	15
4	Tre Fiori	6	+10	13
5	Cosmos	6	+10	13
6	La Fiorita	5	+4	9
7	Libertas	5	0	8
8	Fiorentino	5	+5	7
9	Domagnano	5	−1	6
10	San Giovanni	6	−7	4
11	Pennarossa	6	−13	4
12	Juvenes / Dogana	6	−2	3
13	Cailungo	5	−2	3
14	Murata	5	−9	3
15	San Marino Academy	6	−13	2
16	Faetano	5	−14	2