Libertas v Folgore prediction · Campionato

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LibertasDrawFolgore

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 14:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Folgore 67%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Folgore are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Libertas 14%, draw 19%, Folgore 67%. Over 2.5 goals 64%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Libertas v FolgoreBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Libertas win14%

Draw19%

Folgore win67%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Libertas

Folgore

16Days since last match16

Last match: 9 Oct · Campionato

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Folgore	5	+13	15
8	Libertas	5	0	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · folgore winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

67% The market–

Us67%

We make Folgore a 67% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–2.4, and 0–2 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Libertas v Folgore~~0.98 – 2.41

~~Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D2 L1 · W5 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 8 v 15~~8 v 3

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Libertas win	14%	–	–
Draw	19%	–	–
Folgore win	67%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	64%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	84%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	43%	–	–
Libertas or draw	33%	–	–
Libertas clean sheet	11%	–	–
Folgore clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 9.6%

0123450 4.8 7.9 9.6 7.4 4.5 2.41 3.1 8.8 8.9 6.9 4.2 2.22 4.0 4.4 3.4 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Libertas down, Folgore across0–5 goals a side shown (94.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,272 Campionato matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Campionato matches have gone over 2.5 in 52.2% of games this season, across 46 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 3.30 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Libertas at home: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). Folgore away: 3.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.98 goals for Libertas, 2.41 for Folgore. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~3.30

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~LIB 0–2 FOL · LIB 2–4 FOL · FOL 6–1 LIB · FOL 3–0 LIB

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug

LIBERTAS

DWLDW1–1 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–1 · 2–1

FOLGORE

WWWWW5–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Virtus	6	+10	16
2	Tre Penne	6	+9	16
3	Folgore	5	+13	15
4	Tre Fiori	6	+10	13
5	Cosmos	6	+10	13
6	La Fiorita	5	+4	9
7	Fiorentino	6	+5	8
8	Libertas	5	0	8
9	Domagnano	6	−1	7
10	Cailungo	6	−2	4
11	San Giovanni	6	−7	4
12	Murata	6	−9	4
13	Pennarossa	6	−13	4
14	Juvenes / Dogana	6	−2	3
15	San Marino Academy	6	−13	2
16	Faetano	5	−14	2