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Juvenes / Dogana v Virtus
Juvenes / DoganaVirtusCampionato · FRI 23 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Virtus win at 68%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Virtus 68% before kick-off, 68% now. 0–0 · 11–21–68
- 1′KICK-OFF Juvenes / Dogana v Virtus
- 32′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 32' Virtus win: 68% at kick-off, 58% now
- 36′We said Virtus at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 56%. 0–0 · 12–32–56
- 41′We said Virtus at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 12–34–54
- 45′HALF-TIME Juvenes / Dogana 0–0 Virtus
- 46′SECOND HALF Juvenes / Dogana 0–0 Virtus
- 50′We said Virtus at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 12–39–49
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Virtus win: 68% at kick-off, 48% now
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.7 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 11–43–46
- 57′We said Virtus at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 11–45–44
- 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 47% (was Virtus win 45%)
- 63′We said Virtus at 68%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 10–50–39
- 63′Virtus find the net on 63′. 0–1. 0–1 · 1–9–90
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Juvenes / Dogana 0–1 Virtus
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Virtus win: 68% at kick-off, 90% now
- 63′THE CALL SWINGS · 63' Virtus win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 50%)
- 64′We said Virtus at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–9–90
- 81′We said Virtus at 68% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Virtus win: 68% at kick-off, 98% now
- FTFULL TIME Juvenes / Dogana 0–1 Virtus
- FTJuvenes / Dogana 0–1 Virtus · Virtus win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–2 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Virtus are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Juvenes / Dogana 11%, draw 21%, Virtus 68%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 41%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 17 Oct 00:01 · locked at kick-off
Juvenes / Dogana win11%Virtus win68%Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 20:15
RoundMatchday 6
Match timeline
All events
Juvenes / DoganaMINVirtusEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Juvenes / Dogana
Virtus
Last match: 11 Oct · Campionato
Last match: 11 Oct · Campionato
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
The game in numbers
Match statistics
League table
2026/27Positions before kick-off
| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 | Virtus | 5 | +9 | 13 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 5 | −1 | 3 |
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Virtus a 68% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.7–2.0.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Juvenes / Dogana win | 11% | 11% | 0 |
| Draw | 21% | 22% | −1 |
| Virtus win | 68% | 67% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 41% | 42% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 75% | 72% | +3 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 29% | 30% | −1 |
| Juvenes / Dogana or draw | 32% | 33% | −1 |
| Juvenes / Dogana clean sheet | 14% | – | – |
| Virtus clean sheet | 53% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug
JUVENES / DOGANA
VIRTUS
The table
2026/27| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Folgore | 5 | +13 | 15 |
| 2 |  Tre Penne | 5 | +9 | 15 |
| 3 | Virtus | 5 | +9 | 13 |
| 4 |  Tre Fiori | 5 | +10 | 12 |
| 5 |  Cosmos | 5 | +6 | 10 |
| 6 |  La Fiorita | 5 | +4 | 9 |
| 7 |  Libertas | 5 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 |  Fiorentino | 5 | +5 | 7 |
| 9 |  Domagnano | 5 | −1 | 6 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 5 | −1 | 3 |
| 11 |  Cailungo | 5 | −2 | 3 |
| 12 |  San Giovanni | 5 | −7 | 3 |
| 13 |  Murata | 5 | −9 | 3 |
| 14 |  Pennarossa | 5 | −13 | 3 |
| 15 |  San Marino Academy | 5 | −9 | 2 |
| 16 |  Faetano | 5 | −14 | 2 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.