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Fiorentino v Cailungo

Fiorentino
1–1Full time
Cailungo

Campionato · SAT 24 OCT

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 16:33
Fiorentino 1–1 Cailungo FIORENTINO WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said Fiorentino win61%
The market said53%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.004
The market’s Brier score0.893

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 21 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Fiorentino win at 61%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Fiorentino 61% before kick-off, 60% now. 0–0 · 60–22–17
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Fiorentino v Cailungo
  4. 5′A goal for Fiorentino on 5′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–11–6
  5. 5′We said Fiorentino at 61% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–0 · 83–11–6
  6. 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' Fiorentino 1–0 Cailungo
  7. 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 5' Fiorentino win: 61% at kick-off, 83% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 1–0 · 82–13–5
  9. 36′Cailungo score on 35′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 51–31–18
  10. 36′⚽ GOAL · 35' Fiorentino 1–1 Cailungo
  11. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Fiorentino win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
  12. 41′We said Fiorentino at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–1 · 49–33–18
  13. 42′Fiorentino find the net on 42′. 2–1. 2–1 · 82–13–4
  14. 42′⚽ GOAL · 42' Fiorentino 2–1 Cailungo
  15. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' Fiorentino win: 61% at kick-off, 82% now
  16. 43′GOAL DISALLOWED · 43' Fiorentino
  17. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' Fiorentino win: 61% at kick-off, 49% now
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Fiorentino 1–1 Cailungo
  19. 46′SECOND HALF Fiorentino 1–1 Cailungo
  20. 52′We said Fiorentino at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 1–1 · 44–39–17
  21. 52′Cailungo find the net on 52′. 1–2. 1–2 · 16–28–56
  22. 52′⚽ GOAL · 52' Fiorentino 1–2 Cailungo
  23. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Fiorentino win: 61% at kick-off, 16% now
  24. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' Cailungo win is now our likeliest result at 56% (was Fiorentino win 44%)
  25. 53′We said Fiorentino at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–2 · 16–28–56
  26. 55′GOAL DISALLOWED · 55' Cailungo
  27. 55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Fiorentino win: 61% at kick-off, 43% now
  28. 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Cailungo win 56%)
  29. 67′We said Fiorentino at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 34–52–14
  30. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Fiorentino win: 61% at kick-off, 31% now
  31. 72′We said Fiorentino at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 29–59–12
  32. 76′We said Fiorentino at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 24–65–11
  33. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 78' Fiorentino win: 61% at kick-off, 21% now
  34. 83′We said Fiorentino at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–1 · 14–80–6
  35. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Fiorentino win: 61% at kick-off, 11% now
  36. 87′We said Fiorentino at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–1 · 9–86–4
  37. 92′We said Fiorentino at 61%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–1 · 4–94–2
  38. FTFULL TIME Fiorentino 1–1 Cailungo
  39. FTFiorentino 1–1 Cailungo · Fiorentino win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Fiorentino are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Fiorentino 61%, draw 22%, Cailungo 17%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Fiorentino v CailungoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Fiorentino win61%
Draw22%
Cailungo win17%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 6

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Fiorentino

Cailungo

14Days since last match15

Last match: 10 Oct · Campionato

Last match: 9 Oct · Campionato

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026/27

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
8Fiorentino5+57
13Cailungo5−23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · fiorentino winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
61% The market53%
Us61%
Market53%

We make Fiorentino a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 53%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–1.0.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Fiorentino v Cailungo2.08 – 0.99
Form · Campionato this season · since 28 AugW2 D1 L2 · W1 D0 L4
Table places · points 7 v 38 v 13
The market · Fiorentino win53% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 13:37
Our probability · Fiorentino win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 53% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Fiorentino win61%53%+8
Draw22%25%−3
Cailungo win17%22%−5
Over 2.5 goals58%54%+4
Both teams to score54%53%+1
Over 1.5 goals80%76%+4
Over 3.5 goals37%33%+4
Fiorentino or draw83%78%+5
Fiorentino clean sheet38%––
Cailungo clean sheet14%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 7 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%
0123450 6.1 4.2 2.5 1 9.2 10.2 4.7 2 9.8 9.2 4.6 3 6.7 6.3 3.1 4 3.6 3.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Fiorentino down, Cailungo across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.90
Over 2.56 of 10
Both scored2 of 10
Last meetingsCAI 1–3 FIO · FIO 1–0 CAI · CAI 2–0 FIO · FIO 1–0 CAI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Campionato this season · since 28 Aug

FIORENTINO

WLDLW2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 6–0

CAILUNGO

LLLWL1–2 · 0–1 · 0–2 · 3–0 · 1–2

The table

2026/27
#TEAMPGDPTS
1Virtus6+1016
2Tre Penne6+916
3Folgore5+1315
4Tre Fiori6+1013
5Cosmos6+1013
6La Fiorita5+49
7Libertas508
8Fiorentino5+57
9Domagnano5−16
10San Giovanni6−74
11Pennarossa6−134
12Juvenes / Dogana6−23
13Cailungo5−23
14Murata5−93
15San Marino Academy6−132
16Faetano5−142

The competition's standings before kick-off.